关键词: 创新数量, 创新质量, 外贸出口, U型陷阱, 面板数据

Abstract:  The theory on the contribution of technological progress and innovation to foreign trade export has become increasingly mature after a long-term development. Both theoretical researches and successful experiences of international trade of developed countries show that technological innovation is an important driving force to promote foreign trade export. Either from the macro level or from the micro level of enterprises, innovation can be further analyzed from the two dimensions of quantity and quality, where innovation quantity represents the scale of innovation and innovation quality represents the level of innovation. From the perspective of innovation quantity and innovation quality, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of innovation on export trade, finds its law and characteristics, and analyzes the existing problems, and this research can not only deepen technological innovation and international trade theory, but also help government departments to introduce relevant policies. It is of great theoretical and practical value to enhance China’s level of innovation and improve the competitiveness of China’s export trade. 
From the current research, the theoretical research on the impact of technological progress and innovation on international trade is relatively mature. Most studies find that there is a positive correlation between technological innovation and foreign trade export. Only a few studies have found that innovation has little to do with foreign trade. The mechanism of innovation on foreign trade exports mainly includes improving competitive advantage, reducing fixed export costs, improving production efficiency, as well as product innovation, process innovation, process innovation and so on.
With regard to the problem of innovation in international trade, many researches are involved. In general, further in-depth research is necessary in the following aspects. First, because of the analysis of the relationship between innovation and foreign trade export and the mechanism of action from the perspective of innovation quantity and innovation quality is relatively lacking, it is necessary to further research the relationship and mechanism. Second, how does the quantity and quality of products affect the export of foreign trade? Is the relationship between quantity and quality linear or nonlinear? Why is that? Third, under different levels of foreign trade exports, is there a nonlinear relationship between the quantity of products and the coefficient of elasticity of product contribution to exports?
This paper holds that the micro mechanism of innovation quantity includes improving the competitive advantage of enterprise, reducing the production cost. The macro mechanism of innovation quantity includes strengthening the infrastructure construction of international trade, cultivating innovative talents and cultures, etc. The micro mechanism of innovation quality includes positive feedback which benefits companies to form the Blue Ocean Strategy and companies’ innovations. The macro mechanism of innovation quality includes creating new industries, promoting global value chain, improving national trade environment, etc. 
On that basis, this paper analyzes the mechanism of innovation quantity and innovation quality on foreign trade and puts forward five hypotheses. Hypothesis 1: The number of innovations has a positive effect on foreign trade exports, and its elasticity coefficient is positive. Hypothesis 2: The amount of innovation presents a nonlinear characteristic to the export contribution which presenting a U-shaped curve relationship. Hypothesis 3: Under different foreign trade export levels, the elasticity coefficient of innovation quantity increases with the increase of foreign trade export threshold. Hypothesis 4: Innovation quality has a positive effect on foreign trade exports, and its elasticity coefficient is positive. Hypothesis 5: The quality of innovation has the threshold effect of foreign trade export level which the higher the level of foreign trade export, the greater the elasticity of innovation quality contribution to foreign trade exports. Subsequently, in the series of equations of foreign trade export influencing factors and threshold regression models, the paper uses high-tech industry export delivery value to represent foreign trade export value, using total assets to represent capital, and the average number of employees to represent labor, high-tech industry statistical yearbook. Raw data for corporate R&D funding and government R&D funding are available. With regard to the selection of innovation quantity and innovation quality variables, this paper borrows new product sales revenue to represent the number of innovations, and borrows the proportion of invention patents in patent applications to express the quality of innovation. All the data in this paper comes from the China High-tech Industry Statistical Yearbook. Considering that the total assets data will be released in 2011, the data time range is from 2011 to 2015. The Tibet area is deleted due to the lack of data. Furthermore, the paper uses panel data model to verify the comprehensive influence effect of innovation quantity, innovation quality and foreign trade export, and analyzes the nonlinear effect of innovation quantity and innovation quality on foreign trade export through panel threshold regression model. The research results indicate that the relation between innovation quantity and foreign trade export presents the U-type curve. There is a threshold effect on foreign trade export. As the threshold level of foreign trade export increased, the elasticity of the contribution of innovation quantity increased. However, there is a “U-type trap” effect and “low foreign trade export” effect on innovation quantity. That is, when the number of innovations is at the left end of the U-shaped curve, as the number of innovations increases, the elasticity coefficient of the contribution of innovation quantity to foreign trade exports is gradually decreasing. 
The empirical research shows that the area at the left end of the U-shaped curve accounts for almost one-third. This point is similar to the middle-income trap. If China’s high-tech enterprises cannot complete the transformation and upgrading in time and accelerate the innovation-driven development, they may fall into the dilemma of more innovations and lower innovation performance. It is necessary to increase R&D investment as soon as possible and rush out of the“U-shaped trap” as soon as possible. In addition, the level of innovation quality is low and has nothing to do with foreign trade exports. This indicates that China’s level of innovation quality is low, and it is not enough to play an important role in foreign trade. Strengthening basic research and original innovation investment is fundamental measures to improving the quality of innovation.

Key words:  innovation quantity, innovation quality, foreign trade export, U-type trap, panel data model