关键词: 无形技术外溢, 技术外溢, 区域自主创新

Abstract: Endogenous growth theory holds that the technological progress is the motive force for a country’s sustainable economic growth. Technological progress, however, is often the result of the transfer of foreign innovative technologies, rather than its own R&D. This conclusion is particularly applicable to developing countries. Will this same path, namely the advanced technologies can be transferred from developed countries to developing ones, be followed within China’s different regions?The channels of technology transfer are international trade, FDI and direct spillovers. If there exists technological spillover between the eastern area and central and western areas in China, we assume that spillovers are generated through domestic interregional trade, investment and direct channels, one-to-one corresponding to three ways of technology transfer among countries. This paper compares the influence mechanism of interregional trade, investment and direct technological spillovers on regional innovation by constructing R&D stocks calculation model, and takes Guilin, as well as its sources of technology-Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Nanning-as an example to examine our assumption.Our reference model is from Coe & Helpman (1995). They performed regression of the total factor productivity (TFP) to domestic and foreign R&D stocks. On this basis, this paper replaces foreign R&D stocks with the R&D stock outside the region, and subdivides it into R&D stocks of interregional trade, investment and direct spillover. At the same time, it replaces the TFP in the original model with innovation as an explained variable, thus comparing the effect of three technological spillovers on regional innovative capability.First, we calculate four parts of R&D stocks inside and outside Guilin during 1995-2014. It shows that except for R&D stock of direct spillover, those of interregional trade, investment and its own, rise with fluctuations. Among the total R&D stocks in Guilin, the average share of independent part is only 0.147%, which is 362 million Yuan in 2013, only occupying 0.36% and 0.22% of independent R&D stocks in Beijing and Shanghai, and 16.28% compared to Nanning, its provincial capital. Guilin’s independent R&D resources are seriously inadequate, therefore technological spillovers from outside the region is particularly important. Its R&D stock of investment accounts for the largest proportion on total R&D spillovers (an average of 69.86%) and has increased year by year since 1997, which indicates that investment from other domestic areas has brought a large amount of advanced technologies, similar to the situation of China’s strategy of “exchanging market for technology” in the 1990s. The R&D stock of interregional trade, average share 29.99%, has reached 82.877 billion Yuan in 2013, which is 100 times higher than that of 1994. It fluctuates greatly, and has experienced sharp increase in 2001 and 2005. Moreover, the proportion of R&D stock of direct spillovers is very small, ranging from 0.002% to 0.012%, and its fluctuation is also intense. Although it has increased 79 times, a big number, in the past 20 years, its positive effect on Guilin’s technological innovation is still not obvious.Second, this paper uses VAR model to do time series analysis of regional technological spillover effect in China. The empirical analysis shows that the technological spillovers of investment from Beijing, Shanghai and Nanning to Guilin significantly promote its independent innovation ability. The coefficient of Nanning’s technological spillovers of investment is the largest, for every 1% increase in R&D stock of investment in the first-lagged stage, Guilin’s innovation ability increases by 4.018%. Meanwhile, the positive effect of technological spillovers of investment from Beijing and Shanghai on Guilin’s innovation can last longer period. As for Chongqing, its interregional trade with Guilin has a significant impact on Guilin’s innovation capability. The technological spillover of interregional trade increases 1%, Guilin’s independent innovation can be significantly improved by 6.225%, 1.589% and 1.751% respectively for the latter three periods.As a whole, the impact of technological spillovers from interregional trade on Guilin’s innovation is the most significant among the explanatory variables, first-lagged of which increases 1%, leading Guilin’s independent innovation to expand by 2.102%.The influence of direct technological spillovers is relatively small in the short term;1% increase in the second-lagged one enlarges the independent innovation capacity by 0.146%. However, the coefficient of the third-lagged is 0.710, which is significant at the level of 1%, indicating that direct technological spillovers can promote innovation step by step. Independent R&D also has a positive impact on Guilin’s innovation. The 1% increase of second-lagged independent R&D will make its innovation rise by 0.434%. However, the contribution of technological spillovers of investment to Guilin is not significant. The first-lagged and second-lagged investment spillovers have negative impact on Guilin’s independent innovation, while the third-lagged one is positive but not significant.This paper then uses impulse response function to analyze further the dynamic interaction of technological spillovers from different channels on Guilin’s innovation. It found that direct technological spillover remarkably improves self-innovation in Guilin in short term, while it presents negative effect in the long run; the impact of technological spillovers through interregional trade on Guilin’s independent creation is stronger than direct technological spillovers; but the spillovers through investment do not increase the level of Guilin’s independent innovation. Moreover, the independent R&D in Guilin has an elevated function on its innovation that lasts longer period, although this contribution is less than that of interregional trade and direct technological spillovers.In conclusion, as direct technological spillovers have timeliness, we should constantly narrow the differences in TFP and the level of tertiary industry development within China’s different regions, strengthen personnel mobility and scientific research cooperation, enhance the absorptive capacity of central and western regions, thus help to continuously promote direct technological spillovers from developed areas to developing ones. Next, we should attach great importance to the interregional trade, especially increasing the import share of intermediate inputs and high-tech products from developed regions, and encourage interregional university-industry cooperation. At the same time, the independent R&D in the central and western regions should not be neglected.