研发补贴可以撬动更多私人创新，也可能直接替代和减少企业私人研发，这就产生了政策风险。减少这种政策风险成为发挥研发补贴实施效果的关键。本文提出一个协调一致的理论框架，分析与企业自身特征（规模）相关的政策风险，以及与外部市场竞争相关的政策风险是如何影响研发补贴政策实施绩效的。在此基础上，本文以沪深A股上市公司2008-2012年的数据作为样本，验证企业规模、市场竞争以及两者的各种组合对中国研发补贴政策绩效的调节作用，以识别各种政策风险在哪些条件下会得到缓解。结果发现：在市场竞争程度较小的行业中，不应资助规模过大的企业；在市场竞争程度较强的产业中，应避免资助规模过小的企业。本文可以为合理制定研发补贴政策提供参考建议。

R&D subsidy can stimulate more private innovations, and it may also directly substitute and reduce R&D activities within firms, thus the policy risk arises. The key of successfully implementing R&D subsidy is reducing the policy risk. This paper proposes a coordinated theory framework to analyze how enterprises’own character (size) related hazard and market competition related hazard affect the performance of R&D subsidy. Using data of listed companies in China from 2008-2012 as a sample, this paper examines the moderating effects of enterprise size, market competition, and their combinations on R&D subsidy policies; besides, recognizing the terms, which can relieve the policy risk, attributes to the the improvement of R&D subsidy performance. The results indicate that government should avoid subsidizing large firms in low competitive industries and small firms in high competitive industries. Therefore, our study provides suggestions of making R&D subsidy policies reasonably in China.