科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 20-28.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中美信息技术产品贸易增长动态演变研究

王玉荣，吴刚   

  1. 对外经济贸易大学 国际商学院，北京100029
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-24 修回日期:2017-06-06 出版日期:2018-03-20 发布日期:2018-03-16
  • 通讯作者: 郑学党
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十二五’时期我国发展的创新驱动战略研究”(11&D004)；国家社会科学基金规划项目“我国战略新兴产业技术创新路径研究”(12BGL019)。

Dynamic evolution of the IT product trade growth factors between China and the United States

Wang Yurong, Wu Gang   

  1. Business School, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2015-08-24 Revised:2017-06-06 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-03-16

摘要： 中国和美国是世界IT产品生产和贸易大国，两国贸易发展十分迅速。基于修正的CMS模型，对1997-2014年中美IT产品贸易增长因素进行量化分解。结果发现：①出口价格竞争效应是中美IT产品贸易增长的主导因素，表明两国制造业成本差距不断缩小。②市场需求引致效应对两国IT产品贸易增长贡献趋于增强，中国市场需求较美国更为强劲。③市场需求和供给错位导致出口商品结构效应偏低甚至出现负值，对两国IT产品贸易增长起到制约作用。研究结论深化和丰富了国际贸易理论，揭示了未来中国IT产业贸易竞争优势转变方向，对提升中美IT产品贸易发展质量和扩大贸易规模具有指导意义。

关键词: 中美IT产品, 修正的CMS模型, 市场需求引致效应, 出口价格竞争效应, 出口商品结构效应

Abstract:  China and the United States are important IT production and trading powers in the world, and their bilateral trade has developed very rapidly. Based on the revised CMS model, this paper decomposes the IT product trade growth factors between China and the United States from 1997 to 2014. The findings are as follows: first, export price competitiveness effect is the major trade growth factor between China and the United States, and manufacturing cost gap tends to narrow; second, market demand effect continues to enhance but demand strongest in China than the United States; and third, export structure effect is low or even negative as a result of the dislocation of export structure and market demand, which restricts the growth of trade between the two countries. The conclusions of this paper not only deepen and enrich the theory of international trade, but also reveal the future direction of China’s IT industry competitive advantage. It has a guiding significance to enhance the IT products trade quality and expand trade scale between China and the United States.

Key words: Sino-US IT products, revised CMS model, market demand effect, price competitiveness effect, export structure effect