基于中国汽车制造业2001~2012年的数据，根据分布滞后（ADL）模型和库伊克模型的思想，以AIC、SC信息准则为标准选择最优滞后阶数，研究加入滞后效应考量的情况下，FDI、R&D对中国汽车制造业技术创新能力的影响。研究表明：FDI对中国汽车制造业技术创新能力的影响随着时间累积整体表现出增强趋势，即存在滞后效应，且主要体现为对创新竞争力的正向影响较显著，对核心技术水平和技术创新产出能力的影响始终不明显；R&D对中国汽车制造业技术创新能力的提升具有显著的正向影响，影响强于FDI且存在滞后效应。中国汽车制造业应积极引导外资流向产业研发机构，提高外资用于创新投入的比例；加大R&D投入，着重依靠自主创新，从根本上提升技术创新能力。

Based on the data of China’s automobile manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2012, according to the idea of the distributed lag (ADL) and the Koyck model, the AIC, SC information criterion is used as the judgment standards for selecting optimal lag order number, to study the impact of FDI and R&D on the technological innovation capability of Chinese automobile industry in the case that the lagged-effect is included in considerations. The results showed that the whole impact of FDI on the technology innovation capability of Chinese automobile industry had an increasing trend over time, that is, the lagged-effect existed and a relatively significant positive impact on innovation competitiveness was mainly reflected, while the impact on the core technology and technological innovation output capacity was always not obvious. R&D had a significant positive impact on the upgrading of technological innovation capability of Chinese automobile industry, which was stronger than FDI and also had a lagged-effect. Chinese automobile industry should actively guides foreign investment to the industrial R&D institutions, to increase the proportion of foreign investment for innovation; and increase R&D investment, focusing on relying on independent innovation to fundamentally enhance the technological innovation capability.