在技术发展不确定的情形下，研究企业的技术采纳行为。结合技术发展的实际情况，引入指数分布对技术一次改进量进行假设，构建企业技术采纳的决策模型，并通过仿真分析发现：(1)在技术一次平均改进量相等的的前提下，与均匀分布的情况相比，企业至少需要等待更长的时间才会选择采纳新技术；(2)在一定条件下，单位时间内技术改进越频繁、一次平均改进量越大、折现率越低、企业初始技术水平越低、技术采纳成本越高，企业在选择采纳新技术前至少需要等待的时间越长。

With the rapid development of global economy, the market competition has become more and more diversified. For the company, technology innovation is a good way to achieve the long-term progress. We do research on the corporate behavior of technology adoption in the presence of the uncertainty of technology development. Considering the practical situation of the technology development, we introduce the exponential distribution to suppose the increment of technological level after every technology improvement and construct the decision-making model of the corporate technology adoption. Finally, we get some conclusions through simulation that (i) on the premise that the average increment of technology improvement after every technology improvement is identical, the enterprise will at least wait longer before the technology adoption compared with the situation of uniform distribution. (ii) the corporate shortest waiting time before technology adoption is positively affected by the times of technology improvement per unit time, the average increment of technology improvement after every technology improvement, the technology adoption cost, and is negatively affected by the discount rate and the corporate initial technological level.