技术轨道理论是指导技术创新路径选择的重要理论，但存在局限。提出“商业模式轨道”概念，并通过中国百货零售产业中京东商城和天猫商城的创新案例对比分析了商业模式轨道的存在性、形成过程和对应的创新路径。基于商业模式要素的演化，以创造新运营模式和盈利模式为导向的创新路径是商业模式轨道的形成结果。商业模式轨道理论扩展了技术轨道理论，为后发企业的创新路径选择提供了更广阔的机会空间。

Technological trajectory theory is an important theory for guiding the choice of technological innovation pathways, but it has some limitation. This paper puts forward “business model trajectory” concept, as well as analyzes its existence, formation process and innovation pathways through the comparison of JD.com case and Tmall.com case in Chinese retail industry. Based on the evolution of business model elements, the innovation pathway oriented by creating new operating model and profit model is the result of business model trajectory formation. Business model trajectory theory expands the technological trajectory theory and extends the opportunity space of choosing innovation pathways for late comers.