科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 154-160.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

互联网发展对重大项目绩效影响的定量分析

王长峰,刘喜梅   

  1. 北京邮电大学经济管理学院，北京100876
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-21 修回日期:2016-05-13 出版日期:2017-04-20 发布日期:2017-04-17
  • 通讯作者: 刘喜梅

Quantitative Analysis of Internet Development’s Influence on Major Project Performance

Wang Changfeng， Liu Ximei   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876，China
  • Received:2015-04-21 Revised:2016-05-13 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-17

摘要： 本文根据每千网民IP地址数、每千网民域名数、每千网民网站数和每千网民国际出口带宽数构建了互联网资源指数，根据人才培养数和国内外刊物数构建了重大项目绩效指数。首先，结合国家自然科学基金重大项目资助经费和研究人员的数量首次构建了基于互联网的重大项目绩效的生产函数（回归）模型，并利用生产函数模型测算了互联网资源指数对重大项目绩效指数的贡献率。其次利用GM（1,2）模型评估了互联网资源指数与重大项目绩效指数之间的关系。最后利用GM（1,1）模型对互联网资源指数进行预测。从而使人们能够较全面地了解互联网的出现和发展对重大项目绩效发展的重要影响。

关键词: 互联网, 重大项目, GM（1,2）模型, GM（1,1）模型

Abstract: This paper constructs the internet resources index based on the number of IP addresses/1k people, domain name/1k people, website/1k people and International export Broadband /1k people, and also constructs the major project performance index based on the number of talented people and publications at home and abroad. First, combined with the major projects of National Science Foundation grants and the number of researchers, we construct a production function model of the major project performance based on Internet for the first time and use it to calculate contribution rate of internet resources index to major project performance index. Second, we evaluate the relationship between Internet resources index and major project performance index with GM (1, 2) model. Finally, we forecast the internet resources index with GM (1, 1) model. Therefore, we can have a more comprehensive understanding of the vital influence of the Internet’s emergence and development on major project performance’s development.

Key words: Internet, major project, GM (1, 2) Model, GM (1, 1) Model