科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 41-48.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术进步与二氧化碳排放强度：理论与实证分析

张兵兵,朱晶,全晓云   

  1. 南京农业大学经济管理学院，江苏 南京210095
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-08 修回日期:2017-04-21 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-19
  • 通讯作者: 张兵兵
  • 基金资助:

    中国博士后科学基金第58批面上项目:国际能源价格波动对农产品价格波动的传导效应研究（2015M581819,2015-2017）；中央高校科研业务经费创新项目：基于动态SBM模型的工业污染，环境治理与城市能耗效率测算（SKCX2016001，2016-2018）；中央高校科研业务经费面上项目：扩张性财政政策背景下国有企业市场势力测度及福利效应变化研究（SKTS2016005，2016-2017）；江苏省优势学科项目（PAPD）和江苏省粮食安全研究中心资助。

A theoretical and empirical analysis of technical progress and CO2emission intensity

Zhang Bingbing，Zhu Jing，Quan Xiaoyun   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2015-10-08 Revised:2017-04-21 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-19

摘要： 本文首先通过构建的理论分析框架，对技术进步影响二氧化碳排放强度的作用机制进行了解析。随后，运用DEA-Malmquist方法获取了中国37个行业的技术进步指数，并分别采用静态和动态面板模型的估计方法，综合多种因素考察了技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响。结果表明：就整体样本而言，技术进步可以有效降低二氧化碳排放强度；外商直接投资的流入也会降低二氧化碳排放强度，“污染避难所”假说在行业层面并不成立；而固定资产投资规模的扩大和快速推进的工业化进程均会显著增加二氧化碳排放强度；就行业分类而言，技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响具有异质性；高能源效率行业的技术进步可以有效降低二氧化碳排放强度；低能源效率行业的技术进步会增加二氧化碳排放强度。产生异质性的原因可能在于，不同能源效率行业对初始技术进步的路径选择不同及对各自选择技术进步的路径依赖。

关键词: 技术进步, CO2排放强度, 行业层面, 路径依赖, 动态面板

Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity through a theoretical model first. Then we compute the technical progressive index decomposed from DEA-Malmquist method of 37 industries in China. Besides, we use static and dynamic panel data model to study the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity. Results reveal: For the whole sample, technical progress is the effective measure to reduce CO2 emission intensity; FDI could also reduce CO2 emissions intensity significantly. Therefore the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist at industry levels; the expansion of fixed assets investment and speeded industrialization could raise CO2 emissions intensity significantly. At the industry level, the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity varies: Technology progress of industry with high energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emissions intensity. While industry with low energy efficiency would increase CO2 emissions intensity. Which may be explained by different choices of a path of technical progress and path dependence in different industries.

Key words: technical progress, CO2 emission intensity, industry level, path dependence, dynamic panel