本文首先通过构建的理论分析框架，对技术进步影响二氧化碳排放强度的作用机制进行了解析。随后，运用DEA-Malmquist方法获取了中国37个行业的技术进步指数，并分别采用静态和动态面板模型的估计方法，综合多种因素考察了技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响。结果表明：就整体样本而言，技术进步可以有效降低二氧化碳排放强度；外商直接投资的流入也会降低二氧化碳排放强度，“污染避难所”假说在行业层面并不成立；而固定资产投资规模的扩大和快速推进的工业化进程均会显著增加二氧化碳排放强度；就行业分类而言，技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响具有异质性；高能源效率行业的技术进步可以有效降低二氧化碳排放强度；低能源效率行业的技术进步会增加二氧化碳排放强度。产生异质性的原因可能在于，不同能源效率行业对初始技术进步的路径选择不同及对各自选择技术进步的路径依赖。

This study analyzes the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity through a theoretical model first. Then we compute the technical progressive index decomposed from DEA-Malmquist method of 37 industries in China. Besides, we use static and dynamic panel data model to study the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity. Results reveal: For the whole sample, technical progress is the effective measure to reduce CO2 emission intensity; FDI could also reduce CO2 emissions intensity significantly. Therefore the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist at industry levels; the expansion of fixed assets investment and speeded industrialization could raise CO2 emissions intensity significantly. At the industry level, the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity varies: Technology progress of industry with high energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emissions intensity. While industry with low energy efficiency would increase CO2 emissions intensity. Which may be explained by different choices of a path of technical progress and path dependence in different industries.