基于向量误差修正模型（VECM），利用山东省1995-2012年时间序列数据，实证分析了外商直接投资（FDI）和对外贸易开放水平对碳排放强度的影响，研究发现：FDI对碳排放强度具有抑制效应，对外贸易开放度对碳排放强度具有助长效应，且后者的弹性系数为前者的1.5倍。论文给出的政策建议：升级外商投资的能耗准入标准；创造良好外部条件利用外商直接投资技术溢出效应以加快山东省低碳技术发展步伐；及时淘汰内资企业中的落后产能，避免内资企业成为“污染天堂”的替罪羊；发挥山东省的示范和借鉴价值、挖掘区域经济的发展潜力，须建立和落实生态补偿制度等。

Based on vector error correction model(VECM),with the use of time series data from Shandong province for 1995-2012 ,the author empirical analysis on impacts of foreign direct investment(FDI) and trade openness on carbon emission intensity in Shandong province, the study finds:FDI had an inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity, while foreign trade openness had a promoting effect on carbon emission intensity, and the latter’s elastic coefficient was 1.5 times as big as that of the former. The policy recommendations given in the paper were: upgrading of energy consumption access standards for foreign investment; Eliminating backward production capacity of domestic enterprises in a timely manner and preventing domestic enterprises from becoming “pollution heaven”; playing Shandong province’s demonstration and reference value, tapping into economical development potential of the region, as well as establishing and implementing ecological compensation system.