科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 28-36.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

市场潜能、城镇化与集聚效应——基于空间计量分析

董春1，梁银鹤2   

  1. 1.西南财经大学统计学院，四川 成都611130；
    2.北京大学经济学院，北京100871
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-19 修回日期:2015-09-29 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-12
  • 通讯作者: 董春
  • 基金资助:

    基金项目：国家社会科学基金项目“西部地区新型城镇化与产业转移的互动机制与协同发展研究”（编号：14BJY051；起止时间：2014.6-2016.12）。

Market potential, urbanization and agglomeration-An analysis based on spatial econometrics

Dong Chun1, Liang Yinhe2   

  1. 1. School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, Sichuan, China；
    2. School of Economics，Peking University，Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2014-12-19 Revised:2015-09-29 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-12

摘要： 本文运用双固定效应SDM模型及其空间溢出效应分解方法，在构建关于集聚效应的新经济地理学模型的基础上，着重对市场潜能、城镇化与集聚效应的关系和作用机制进行了分析。研究表明：市场潜能对地区集聚经济的影响显著为正，并且邻近区域存在竞争的特点。通过城镇化的空间溢出效应分解可以看出，三种城镇化因素对集聚效应的发展有正向影响，但是作用机制各不相同，其中，人口城镇化和经济城镇化只通过直接效应对本地区集聚效应产生正向作用，而土地城镇化通过三种效应对本地区和周围地区产生正向的促进作用。最后，在实证的基础上，本文提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 市场潜能, 城镇化, 集聚效应, 空间计量

Abstract: By using with SDM model with spatial and time-period fixed effects and decomposition of spatial spillovers, this paper analyzes the relationship and mechanism of action effects between market potential, urbanization and agglomeration based on the new economic geography model about agglomeration economies. The result shows: market potential and urbanization promote agglomeration economies, and competition from neighboring regions exists. Through the decomposition of spillover effects of urbanization, we find that the three factors of urbanization have a positive impact on the development of agglomeration, but their mechanism is different. Specifically, population urbanization and economic urbanization have a positive role in agglomeration economies only through the direct effect. Furthermore, land urbanization facilitates the area itself and surrounding areas by the three effects. Finally, on the basis of empirical results, some related policy recommendations are put forward.

Key words: market potential, urbanization, agglomeration, spatial econometrics