本文基于技术轨道理论和德温特创新专利引文索引(Derwent Innovation Index，DII)数据库，利用Python编程语言获取专利引用数据，以智能手机技术颠覆传统手机技术等为例，分析了专利量、专利引用量和专利引用率等随时间变化的JΛL型曲线，从而揭示了颠覆性技术的演化轨道，建立了颠覆性技术演化的分析框架，并提出了“专利影响因子”这一计量指标，提高了对颠覆性技术进行早期识别的准确性，以期为相关研究者提供有益的启示。

Based on the theory of technology trajectory, this paper, by taking how smartphone technology subverts the traditional mobile phone technology as an example, analyzes the JΛL curve of the amount of patents, patent citation and patent citation rate over time by patents’ citation information, which is crawled down by applying the Python programming in Derwent Innovation Index database. The result reveals the smartphone’s technology evolution trajectory, establishes the analysis framework of disruptive technology evolution and proposes the patent impact factor to realize the early identification of disruptive technology, hoping to provide researchers with useful information.