本文利用非参数K-M生存分析法和离散时间Cloglog模型对中国出口贸易持续时间及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:中国出口贸易动态变化较为显著, 持续时间的中位数只有2年, 且存在“门槛效应”效应, 超过4年以后失败的概率明显降低;目的国经济规模、首次出口额、多元化等上升有利于降低出口贸易失败的概率, 而地理距离、单位价值、人民币汇率等上升则会增加出口贸易中断风险。最后, 就延长中国出口贸易持续时间提出了一些建议。
Abstract
Using the non-parameter Kaplan-Meier method and the discrete time Cloglog model, this paper empirically studies the duration of China's export and its decisive factors. The results indicate that the dynamic change of China's export relationship is very remarkable and the median of the duration is only two years. There is also the threshold effect for China's export. The survival rate of trade relationship is lower at the beginning, but the failure rate after four years declines significantly. The rising of economic scale, initial export volume, diversification and so on, will reduce the failure probability of export relationship. While the rising of geographic distance, unit value, RMB exchange rate and so on, will increase the failure probability of export relationship. Finally, this paper put forward some suggestion about how to lengthen the duration of China's export.
关键词
出口贸易 /
持续时间 /
Cloglog模型
Key words
export /
duration /
Cloglog Model
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参考文献
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基金
国家社科基金项目:低碳经济下提升我国制造业贸易竞争力研究,编号:11CJY045,起止时间:2011－2015;国家社科基金项目:微观视角下中国(上海)自由贸易试验区的贸易效应研究,编号:14CJY001,起止时间:2014－2016;江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目:绿色壁垒、出口冲击与中国制造业贸易安全,编号:PAPD,起止时间:2014-2017。
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