基于传染病模型的商业模式扩散机制研究

科研管理 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 10-18.

基于传染病模型的商业模式扩散机制研究

王砚羽, 谢伟

清华大学经济管理学院, 北京 100084

收稿日期:2013-12-30 修回日期:2015-01-22 出版日期:2015-07-25 发布日期:2015-07-08
通讯作者: 王砚羽
作者简介:王砚羽(1986-),女(汉),河北唐山人,清华大学经济管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:创新创业与战略。
谢伟(1967-),男(汉),安徽无为人,清华大学经济管理学院教授、博导,研究方向:创新创业与战略。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71372051,2014.1-2017.12),国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71421061,2015.1-2017.12)和教育部博士学科点专项科研基金(20130002110047,2014.1-2016.12)及教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD630013,2015.1-2017.12;10JJD63008,2010-2014)。

A study on the diffusion mechanism of business models based on the Epidemic Model

Wang Yanyu, Xie Wei

School of Economic and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2013-12-30 Revised:2015-01-22 Online:2015-07-25 Published:2015-07-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对实践中涌现出的众多商业模式模仿现象, 采用传染病模型探讨了商业模式扩散机制。首先分析了传染病模型对商业模式扩散问题的适用性;提出了商业模式扩散机制及相关假设, 并通过系统仿真和案例研究验证了假设。结果表明:创新源相对规模越大, 系统的动态性越强, 达到均衡的时间越长;传染率和拒绝率的交互作用影响扩散速度和系统结构, 两比例变量的相对差距受到商业模式自身性质的影响。研究结论弥补了商业模式和创新扩散理论的已有盲点, 为企业商业模式创新和模仿及国家产业政策制定提供管理启示。

关键词: 传染病模型, 商业模式, 扩散机制

Abstract: The diffusion of business models is a significant phenomenon with limited theoretical explanation. This paper proves the appropriateness of the Epidemic Model on the diffusion of business models, and proposes the diffusion mechanism and hypotheses by using the simulation and case study methodology to test the hypotheses. The results show that the bigger the size of innovation source, the stronger the system dynamic is and the longer the equilibrium time; the infection rate and recovery rate can affect the diffusion speed and equilibrium structure; and the difference between the two ratios is influenced by the nature of business models. The results fill the gaps on business model and innovation diffusion and provide suggestion for enterprises and the makers of national enterprise policies.

Key words: Epidemic Model, business model, diffusion mechanism

中图分类号:

F204

王砚羽, 谢伟. 基于传染病模型的商业模式扩散机制研究[J]. 科研管理, 2015, 36(7): 10-18.

Wang Yanyu, Xie Wei. A study on the diffusion mechanism of business models based on the Epidemic Model[J]. Science Research Management, 2015, 36(7): 10-18.

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