能源供应安全是国家社会经 济可持续发展的基础,直接关系着国家的稳定和谐.近年来,随着能源供需矛盾的日益严重,区域能源安全研究逐渐成为学术界的热点问题之一.本文运用系统动力学理论构建中国能源安全的系统动力学模型,通过对产业经济、资源、人口、环境子系统参数的调控,预测能源生产量、能源消耗量、能源供需缺口与能源战略储备等变量的动态变化,模拟得到三种我国能源安全系统的发展模式.研究结果表明:保持调控参数不变,我国现有能源安全系统的稳定性将难以持续;通过参数的调整,模拟得到方案1与方案2下的能源安全系统发展模式.相比方案current,从长远上看,因国家战略储备的增加,方案1下的能源安全系统稳定性较好;从短期角度看,方案2中的能源生产量持续增加,保证了能源安全系统的稳定性,但从长远上看,国家战略储备的减少将会威胁我国能源安全系统的稳定性.根据所得结果,提出建立国家能源统计管理账户、强化能源战略储备以及加快新能源与再生能源使 用等措施以保证我国能源安全系统的稳定、健康发展.
Abstract
Energy supply security is the basis for sustainable development of national economy, and directly related to the country's stability and harmonization. In recent years, with the contradiction between supply and demand of energy resources being more serious, energy security gradually becomes the focus of academic research problems. This paper uses the System Dynamics Theory to construct the energy security system dynamics model of China, through regulating parameters of the industry, economy, population and environment subsystem in order to predict the dynamic changes of variables such as energy production, energy consumption, energy supply-demand gap and energy strategic reserve, and draws three development patterns of energy security system. The research results show that: if the control parameters are kept unchanged, the stability of Chinese current energy security system will be difficult to sustain; and if the control parameters are adjusted, we simulate two development patterns of energy security system under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Compared with scenario 'current', from a long-term perspective, the stability of energy security system under Scenario 1 is better because of an increase of the national energy strategic reserve; in the short term, the stability of energy security system under Scenario 2 is better due to continuous increase of energy production, but in the long run, the stability of Chinese energy security system will be threatened because of the national energy strategic reserve reduction. According to the results, the paper puts forward some measures for developing the energy security system stably and healthily, such as establishing national energy statistical management account, strengthening energy strategic reserve and speeding up new energy and renewable energy use.
关键词
能源安全系统 /
仿真模拟 /
系统动力学
Key words
energy security system /
simulating /
system dynamic
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] Lynne chester.conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature [J].Energy Policy,2010,38(2):892-893.
[2] Andreas loschel, ulf moslener.indicators of energy security in industrialised countries [J].Energy Policy,2010,38(4):1665-1671.
[3] Benjamin K. Sovacool,ishani mukherjee.Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries [J].Energy,2011,36(10):5846-5853.
[4] Juozas augutis, ricardas krikstolaitis.Energy security level assessment technology [J].Applied Energy,2012,97: 143-149.
[5] Jim watson, alister scott.New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security? [J].Energy Policy,2009,37(12):5094-5104.
[6] Gail cohen, frederick joutz.Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies [J].Energy Policy,2011,39(9):4860-4869.
[7] 范中启,曹明.能源-经济-环境系统可持续发展协调状态的测度与评价[J].预测,2006,25(4):66-70.
[8] 赵芳.中国能源-经济-环境(3E)协调发展状态的实证研究[J].经济学家,2009(12):35-41.
[9] 宋敏,刘学敏.西北地区能源-环境-经济可持续发展预警研究——以陕西省为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5):133-138.
[10] 李继峰,张阿玲.混合式能源-经济-环境系统模型构建方法论[J].系统工程学报,2007,22(2):170-175.
[11] Forrester, J.W.Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers [J].Harvard Business Review 1958,36(4):37-66.
[12] 谭玲玲.电力行业煤炭需求系统动力学模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(7):55-63.
[13] 韩金山,谭忠.中国电力系统长期演化模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(8):1521-1529.
[14] 王灵梅,张金屯,倪维斗.火电厂生态工业园的系统动力学模拟与调控[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005(7):117-124.
[15] 唐旭,张宝生,邓红梅,冯连勇.基于系统动力学的中国石油产量预测分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(2):208-212.
[16] 袁磊,张宝生,王震.中国成品油需求仿真系统及仿真模拟研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4):654-666.
[17] 李明玉,李凯,郁培丽.Hubbert曲线系统动力学模型预测能力分析——以美国石油产量数据为例[J].系统工程,2009,27(2):102-108.
[18] 宋学锋,刘耀彬.基于SD的江苏省城市化与生态环境耦合发展情景分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006(3):124-130.
[19] 潘婧,杨山,沈芳艳.基于系统动力学的港城耦合系统模型构建及仿真——以连云港为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(11):2439-2445.
基金
国家自然科学基金重大国际(地区)合作研究项目"绿色增长理论与实践的国际比较研究"(713101018);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"城市居民可持续消费行为的形成机理及驱动机制研究"(71103024).
