能源消费研究视角比较重视短期管理，研究成果往往难以解决能源管理的根本问题，能源供给视角的研究更有利于为能源的长期管理提供借鉴。本文选取能源资源禀赋、经济增长水平、产业结构和技术进步作为影响我国能源供给的主要因素，运用改进熵值法计算各指标权重，构建我国能源供给影响因素指标体系，采用突变级数法和最小二乘法（OLS）对我国1991年-2011年各指标相关数据进行综合分析评价。评价结果表明：四个影响因素对我国能源供给具有显著性促进作用，其中，能源资源禀赋的影响程度最大，其它三个因素的影响程度依次为经济增长水平、产业结构和技术进步。实证评价结果为进一步分析和提炼我国能源供给影响因素提供指导和借鉴。
Abstract
The research perspective of energy consumption pays more attention to short-term management, research results are often difficult to solve the basic problem of energy management, and the view of energy supply is more beneficial to provide reference for the long-term management of energy. The paper selects energy resource endowment, economic growth level, industrial structure and technical progress as the main influencing factors of energy supply in China, calculates the weight of each index based on Improved Entropy Method, constructs the index system of influence factors of energy supply in China, makes synthetic analysis and evaluation on the related data of each index from 1991 to 2011 in China based on Catastrophe Theory and OLS. The evaluation results show that the four influencing factors have significant promotion on energy supply in China, among them, energy resource endowment has the most effect on energy supply, the influence degrees of other three are economic growth level, industrial structure and technical progress in turn. The empirical evaluation results provide guidance and reference for further analyzing and refining the influence factors of energy supply in China.
关键词
能源供给 /
突变级数法 /
改进熵值法 /
回归方程 /
影响因素
Key words
energy supply /
catastrophe theory /
improved entropy method /
regression equation /
influencing factors
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基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目（71072075，起止时间：2011-2013）；国家软科学项目（2010GXQ5D328，起止时间：2010.12-2011.12）；黑龙江省社科研究规划重大决策咨询项目（12G003，起止时间：2012-2014）。
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