本文提出市场轨道理论：一方面是基于轨道特性的识别对技术轨道理论进行延伸和拓展，为创新与追赶的机会识别提供新视角；另一方面丰富市场颠覆现象的理论解释。本文采用演绎方法，基于已有相关理论，联系实际案例，提出市场轨道理论框架：（1）市场轨道是由主导市场演进的需求要素和渠道要素的演化与变迁所驱动；（2）市场演进及更替轨迹具备轨道特征，包括连续性与累积性、排他性、衍生性；（3）利用市场轨道的创新产品或服务可以从新市场起步，逐渐对已有的市场空间产生侵蚀，甚至取代原有的主流市场，实现市场颠覆。
Abstract
This paper proposes ‘Market Trajectory’ theory. we aim to put forward the technological trajectory theory and open new perspective of searching for innovation and catching-up opportunities based on identifying the characteristics of ‘trajectory’ in innovation studies. we also attempt to enrich the theoretical explanation of market disruption phenomenon. Using deductive method, this paper advances the conceptual framework of market trajectory: (1) market trajectory is driven by the evolution and transition of market demand and channel factors which dominates the market growth; (2)market trajectory shares the common characteristics of the trajectory, including accumulation, exclusion, and derivative; (3) market growth of innovative products or services within market trajectory essentially refers to the evolving process of eroding the existing market place which starts from the emergence of a new market and ends with the substitution or disruption of the existing market.
关键词
市场轨道 /
技术轨道 /
市场颠覆 /
市场创新 /
需求和渠道要素
Key words
market trajectory /
technological trajectory /
market disruption /
market innovation /
demand and channel factors
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基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目“广义轨道理论：基于后发国家追赶视角的研究”（71072010），教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目（10JJD630008）。
