需求和渠道要素驱动的市场轨道形成机理研究

科研管理 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 13-19.

需求和渠道要素驱动的市场轨道形成机理研究

熊鸿儒^1,2, 吴贵生³, 王毅³

1. 国务院发展研究中心, 北京 100010;
2. 中国(海南)改革发展研究院, 海南海口 570311;
3. 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地清华大学技术创新研究中心, 北京 100084

收稿日期:2012-06-28 修回日期:2013-06-07 出版日期:2014-07-25 发布日期:2014-07-15
作者简介:熊鸿儒（1986-），江西南昌人，管理学博士，国务院发展研究中心助理研究员，中国（海南）改革发展研究院博士后研究人员，研究方向：创新与创业管理、技术经济评价、创新政策等。
吴贵生（1947-），安徽贵池人，教授、博士生导师，清华大学技术创新研究中心主任，研究方向：技术创新管理、服务创新、区域科技等。
王毅（1972-），湖南冷水江人，博士，清华大学经济管理学院副教授，研究方向：企业能力与战略管理，知识转移与知识创造。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目“广义轨道理论：基于后发国家追赶视角的研究”（71072010），教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目（10JJD630008）。

A study on the evolution of market trajectory driven by market demand and channel factors

Xiong Hongru^1,2, Wu Guisheng³, Wang Yi³

1. State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing 100010, China;
2. China Institule for Reform and Development, Haikou 570311, Hainan, China;
3. Research Center for Technological Innovation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2012-06-28 Revised:2013-06-07 Online:2014-07-25 Published:2014-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文提出市场轨道理论：一方面是基于轨道特性的识别对技术轨道理论进行延伸和拓展，为创新与追赶的机会识别提供新视角；另一方面丰富市场颠覆现象的理论解释。本文采用演绎方法，基于已有相关理论，联系实际案例，提出市场轨道理论框架：（1）市场轨道是由主导市场演进的需求要素和渠道要素的演化与变迁所驱动；（2）市场演进及更替轨迹具备轨道特征，包括连续性与累积性、排他性、衍生性；（3）利用市场轨道的创新产品或服务可以从新市场起步，逐渐对已有的市场空间产生侵蚀，甚至取代原有的主流市场，实现市场颠覆。

关键词: 市场轨道, 技术轨道, 市场颠覆, 市场创新, 需求和渠道要素

Abstract: This paper proposes ‘Market Trajectory’ theory. we aim to put forward the technological trajectory theory and open new perspective of searching for innovation and catching-up opportunities based on identifying the characteristics of ‘trajectory’ in innovation studies. we also attempt to enrich the theoretical explanation of market disruption phenomenon. Using deductive method, this paper advances the conceptual framework of market trajectory: (1) market trajectory is driven by the evolution and transition of market demand and channel factors which dominates the market growth; (2)market trajectory shares the common characteristics of the trajectory, including accumulation, exclusion, and derivative; (3) market growth of innovative products or services within market trajectory essentially refers to the evolving process of eroding the existing market place which starts from the emergence of a new market and ends with the substitution or disruption of the existing market.

Key words: market trajectory, technological trajectory, market disruption, market innovation, demand and channel factors

中图分类号:

F272.3

熊鸿儒, 吴贵生, 王毅. 需求和渠道要素驱动的市场轨道形成机理研究[J]. 科研管理, 2014, 35(7): 13-19.

Xiong Hongru, Wu Guisheng, Wang Yi. A study on the evolution of market trajectory driven by market demand and channel factors[J]. Science Research Management, 2014, 35(7): 13-19.

参考文献

[1] 高旭东."后来者劣势"与我国企业发展新兴技术的对策[J].管理学报,2005,2(3):291－294. [2] 高旭东.自主技术创新从初级阶段走向高级阶段的理论与政策[J].技术经济,2009,28(6):1-4. [3] 谢伟,吴贵生. 彩电产业的技术学习过程[J]. 中国软科学, 2000. [4] Lee K., Lim C. Technological regimes, catching-up and leapfrogging: Findings from Korea industries[J]. Research Policy, 2001, 30(3): 459-483. [5] Dosi G. Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change [J]. Research Policy. 1982, 11(3): 147-162. [6] Perez C. Soete L. Catching up in technology: entry barriers and windows of opportunity. Chapter 21 in Dosi G. "Technical Change and Economic Theory" [M]. London: Pinter, 1988. [7] 柳卸林. 技术轨道和自主创新[J]. 中国科技论坛, 1997(2): 32-35. [8] Dosi G. Technical change and industrial transformation [M]. London: Macmillan, 1984. [9] 熊鸿儒,王毅,吴贵生等. 技术轨道研究:述评与展望[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2012,33 (7): 21-28. [10] Schumpeter J. A. The theory of economic development [M]. Harvard University Press, 1934. [11] Nelson R.R.,Winter S.G. An evolutionary theory of economic change [M]. Harvard: Harvard University Press, 1982. [12] Castellacci F. Technological paradigms, regimes and trajectories: Manufacturing and service industries in a new taxonomy of sectoral patterns of innovation [J]. Research Policy. 2008, 37: 978-994. [13] Christensen C M. The innovator's dilemma [M]. Harvard Business School Press, 1997. [14] Christensen C M, Raynor. The innovator's solution [M]. Harvard Business School Press, 2003. [15] Kotler P., Armstrong G. Principles of marketing [M], Prentice Hall, 2007. [16] Doyle P. Markets and Innovation [J]. European Management Journal. 1989, 7(4): 413-421. [17] Utterback J. M. Mastering the dynamics of innovation: how companies can seize opportunities in the face of technological change [M]. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1994. [18] Malerba F. Innovation and the evolution of industries [J]. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 2006, 16(1-2):3-23. [19] Kim, W. C., Mauborgne R.. Value Innovation: a leap into the blue ocean [J]. Journal of Business Strategy. 2005, 26(4): 22-28. [20] Tripsas M. Customer preference discontinuities: a trigger for radical technological change [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics. 2008, 29:79-97. [21] 江林. 消费者心理与行为[M]. 中国人民大学出版社, 2007. [22] Day G S. 市场驱动战略:价值创造过程[M]. 北京:华夏出版社,2000. [23] Day G S. The Capabilities of market-driven organizations [J]. Journal of Marketing, 1994, 58(10): 37-52. [24] Johnson, M. W., Christensen, C. M., Kagermann, H. Reinventing Your Business Model [J]. Harvard Business Review, 2008. 86(12): 50-59. [25] 熊鸿儒,吴贵生,王毅. 市场轨道理论溯源:技术轨道与市场颠覆[J]. 技术经济, 2012, 31(7): 7-13. [26] 吴贵生,林敏. 广义轨道理论探讨[J]. 技术经济, 2012, 31(2): 1-5. [27] Hippel E V. Lead users: A source of novel product concepts [J]. Management Science, 1986, 32 (7): 791-805. [28] 吴贵生,谢伟. 用户创新概念及其运行机制[J]. 科研管理, 1996, 17(5): 14-19. [29] Mowery D C, Rosenberg N. The influence of market demand upon innovation: a critical review of some recent empirical examples [J]. Research Policy. 1979, 8:102-153. [30] Geroski P. The Evolution of New Markets [M]. Oxford University Press, 2003.