随着区域创新系统概念成为制订区域创新政策的基础分析框架，学术界和政府加大了对区域创新指数的测度研究。但是目前的创新指数主要是基于创新能力和创新绩效的指数测度，这类指数指标之间缺乏时序性、指数的动态时效性也不足、无预警功能，指标越来越宽泛、不能反映科技创新景气状态，对科技创新政策指导性较弱。本文从景气状态的视角，基于创新周期波动的理论，提出并构建了国家科技创新景气指数，对中国等五国进行了实证研究，并构建了国家科技创新景气状态的预警信号系统。
Abstract
As the concept of regional innovation system becomes a basic analytical framework to formulate the policy of regional innovation, academia and the government increased the measurement research on the regional innovation index. However, the current innovation index is based on innovation ability and innovation performance. These indexes are lack of time sequence, and with the problem of dynamic timeliness, lacking of early warning function, and indicators are too broad to reflect the state of the science and technology innovation. All of these factors make scientific and technological innovation policy guidance weak. Building the scientific and technological innovation climate index which is based on the innovation cycle theory from the perspective of the climate status, this paper not only conducts an empirical study on China and other four countries, but also builds the early warning signal system for national scientific and technological innovation climate index.
关键词
科技创新 /
景气指数 /
模型 /
构建
Key words
technological innovation /
climate index /
model /
construction
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] FREEMAN C. Technology policy and economic performance, lessons from Japan[M]. Pinter Pub Ltd, 1987.
[2] Cooke P.Hans Joachim BrazykHJ,Heidenreich M. Regional Innovation Systerms:The Role of Government in the Globalized Word [M]. London: UCL Press, 1996.
[3] David Doloreux and SaeedParto,Regional innovation systems:a critical synthesisl [C].United Nations University,Discussion Paper Series No.2004,17:123－135.
[4] Morgan K. The learning region:institutions, innovation and regional renewal[J]. Regional studies ,1997 , 31 (5) :491 - 503.
[5] LoetLeydesdorrf. The triple helix:A evolutionary model of innovations[J]. Research Policy,2000(29),243-255.
[6] Freeman C. Networks of Innovators: Synthesis of Research Issues[J].Research policy,1991,(20):499-514.
[7] 郑伟,李廉水.创新型国家评价指标体系研究—基于科技支撑和引领发展的视角[EB/OL].(2007-01-11).www.zjo.l com. cn/05biz/system.
[8] MIKEL BUESA,JOOST HEUs, M.NICA MART,NEZPELLITERO,et a1.Regional systems of innovation and the knowledge production function: the Spanish case[J]. Technovation, 2006, 26(4): 463-472.
[9] XIBAO LL China's regional innovation capacity in transition:an empirical approach[J].Research Policy,2009, 38(2): 338-357.
[10] Carcia AG, Voigt P, Iturriagagoitia JMZ. Evaluating the Performance of Regional Innovation System [C]. Paper Presented at the 5th Triple Helix Conference on The Capitalization of Knowledge: Cognitive, Economic, Social&Cultural aspects. TURIN, 18~21, May, 2005.
[11] Auto E. Evaluation of RTD in Regional Innovation Systems[J]. European Planning Studies, 1998,6(2):131-140.
[12] 胡志坚,苏靖.区域新系统理论的提出与发展[J].科技管理研究,2007(9):20-23.
[13] 张继宏,张洪辉.国家集成创新能力评价指标体系研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2010(3):40-43.
[14] F. Todtling. Innovation systems in regions of European comparative perspective[J] . European Planning Studies , 1999 ( 6) : 9-16.
[15] ION M ZABALA-ITURRIAGAGOITIA,PETER VOIGT.ANTONIO GUTIBREZ-GRACIA.Regional Innovation Systems:How to Assess Performance[J].Regional Studies,2007.41(5):661-672.
[16] C. K. Sank at , K. R. Pun& C. B. Motilaf. Science, Technology and Innovation in Caribbean Countries: Performance Indicators of a Generic Model West Indian Journal of Engineering [J] .Technical Paper, 2006, 28( 2) : 13- 26.
[17] 冯岑明, 方德英. 基于神经网络的区域科技创新能力的综合评价研究[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2007(10): 140- 143.
[18] 杨艳萍. 区域科技创新能力的主成分分析与评价[J]. 技术经济, 2007(6) : 15- 20.
[19] 张克英, 黄瑞华, 朱爱辉. 多种综合评价方法在科技创新评价指标分析中的应用[J].科技管理研究, 2005( 11) : 65-67.
[20] Freeman, C., Louca, F., As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution[M], Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2002.
[21] Kohler, J. Long run technical change in an energy-environment-economy model for an IA system: A model of Kondratiev waves. Integrated Assessment[J].2003, 4 (2), 126-133.
[22] Perez, C.,Structural change and the assimilation of new technologies in the economic and social system. Futures[J]. 1983,15,357-375.
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目（项目编号：71273025；起止时间：2013年1月-2016年12月）；国家软科学研究计划项目（重大）（项目编号：2010GXS1K015；起止时间：2011年1月-2012年12月）。
