为了分析经济与环境间能否实现协调发展,本文首先将资源环境因素纳入内生经济增长模型,运用最优控制方法得出了可持续发展能否实现以及实现条件。在此基础上,以我国1995-2011年30个省的CO2排放为例,通过构建联立方程模型和运用3SLS法对EKC假说进行了计量检验。结果表明:(1)当消费跨期替代弹性等满足一定条件时,即可实现经济与环境间的协调发展;(2)虽然现阶段经济增长与CO2排放呈正向变动,但EKC假说仍是成立的,即我国最终能实现两者间的协调发展;(3)工业结构、贸易开放度和城市化水平对碳排放不利,能源强度、一次能源消费结构和环境规制则正好相反,其中能源强度是影响碳排放的关键因素。
Abstract
In order to analyze whether the coordinated development of economy and environment can be realized, this paper firstly introduces the factors of resource and environment into an endogenous economic growth model, and analyzes whether sustainable development can be realized and the achieving conditions by using optimal control method. Based on the model analysis, the paper next uses Chinese 30 provinces' CO2 emissions data from 1995 to 2011to test econometrically the EKC hypothesis through establishing simultaneous equation model and using 3SLS method. The results indicate that: (1) when consumption intertemporal substitution elasticity and other variables satisfy certain conditions, the coordinated development of economy and environment can be realized. (2) Although at present economic growth is positively correlated with CO2 emissions, we still find the evidence substantiating the presence of EKC hypothesis, namely the coordinated development of economy and carbon emissions can finally be realized in China. (3) The industrial structure, trade openness and urbanization level have negative impacts on carbon emissions, but energy intensity, primary energy consumption structure and environmental regulation are just the opposite. Energy intensity is the key influencing factor for China's CO2 emissions.
关键词
环境 /
CO2排放 /
经济增长 /
协调发展 /
环境库兹涅茨曲线
Key words
environment /
CO2 emissions /
economic growth /
coordinated development /
Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)
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基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"产业结构空间外溢性与区域产业结构升级协调发展的空间计量研究"(12YJC790041),起止时间:2012-02-2015-02。
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