科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 111-120.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

省际低碳经济增长路径优化及碳排放脱钩预测

公维凤1,2,3, 周德群1,2, 王传会1,4   

  1. 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏 南京 211106;
    2. 南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心, 江苏 南京 211106;
    3. 曲阜师范大学经济学院, 山东 日照 276826;
    4. 临沂大学商学院, 山东 临沂 276000
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-06 修回日期:2012-10-24 出版日期:2013-05-27 发布日期:2013-05-20
  • 基金资助:
    教育部博士点基金项目"中国区域碳减排责任划分研究—基于技术效率与空间差异视角"(编号:20123218110028;起止日期:2013-2015);国家自然科学基金项目"石油价格危机预警分级机制及其智能应急响应策略研究"(编号:71203081;起止日期:2013-2015);国家自然科学基金青年项目"产业转移的碳溢出效应测度研究—以皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区为例"(编号:71203100;起止日期:2013-2015);山东省自然科学基金项目"山东省生物质能源资源潜力与地理分布"(编号:ZR2010DM017,起止日期:2010-2013);山东省自然科学基金面上项目"三维企业边界模型与蓝色经济区龙头企业升级的产业定位研究"(编号:ZR2010GM012;起止日期:2010-2013)。

The path optimization of provincial lower-carbon economic growthand the decoupling prediction of carbon emissions in each province of China

Gong Weifeng1,2,3, Zhou Dequn1,2, Wang Chuanhui1,4   

  1. 1. College of Economy and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronauticsand Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;
    2. Research Centre for Energy Soft Science, Nanjing University of Aeronauticsand Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;
    3. School of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China;
    4. School of Business, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China
  • Received:2012-04-06 Revised:2012-10-24 Online:2013-05-27 Published:2013-05-20

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摘要： 本文从全局最优角度建立了省区低碳经济增长优化模型,找到了在全国能耗强度和碳排放强度约束下各省经济增长最优路径,预测了各省碳排放、能源消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩状态。结果表明,若2010-2015年各省能耗强度与碳排放强度均能够实现政府制定的降低目标,将会阻碍山西、宁夏、内蒙古和贵州的经济增长,但能促进其他省区的经济增长;提高北京、河北、上海、浙江和广东的经济增长有利于带动山西、内蒙古和贵州的经济发展,但会提高部分省区的能源结构碳强度;全国能耗强度和碳排放强度的最优降幅分别为18.19%和19.56%。除海南或青海的碳排放、能源消耗与经济增长之间均处于增长连接状态外,其他省区均处于弱脱钩状态,说明在经济增长最优路径上各省节能减排效果明显;各省碳排放增速均小于能源消耗增速,说明各省能源结构将逐渐优化。

关键词: 优化模型, 能耗强度, 碳排放强度, 经济增长, 脱钩分析

Abstract: An optimal model of provincial lower-carbon economic growth is established based on the global optimal angle. Under the constraint of energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of China, the optimal path for provincial lower-carbon economic growth is found. The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each province is predicted, and the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of each province is also predicted. If each provincial government is able to achieve the target of energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity during the period of 2010-2015, the economic growth rate of Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou would be impeded, however the economic growth rate of other provinces in China would be promoted. Increasing economic growth rate of Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong is benefit to drive economic development of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou. But the energy-carbon intensity of several provinces would be increased. From 2010 to 2015, the energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of the whole nation would be reduced about 18.19% and 19.56%, respectively. Excerpt the carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth for the provinces of Hainan and Qinghai all in the status of growth connection, rest of the provinces are all in the condition of weak decoupling. The results show that the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction is remarkable on the optimal economic growth path. The growth rate of carbon emissions is slower than the growth rate of energy consumption in each province. It means that energy resource structure of each province is gradually optimizing.

Key words: optimal model, energy intensity, carbon emission intensity, economic growth, decoupling analysis

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