本文首先建立了面板(panel data)形式的协整与误差修正模型,考察了高新技术产业在自主研发与技术引进影响下的长期均衡与短期波动。结论表明:自主研发支出在长期和短期内对高新技术产业产出均具有显著的正向影响;技术引进支出对高新技术产业产出的影响时滞正逐步缩短,其对高新技术企业产出的促进效果逐渐显现。然后,本文又进一步按照整个高新技术产业、大型和中型高新技术企业三种情况,分别建立了结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,利用脉冲响应函数方法研究了高新技术产业产出在自主研发和技术引进冲击下的动态变化路径。从波动的程度来看,中型高新技术企业受到冲击后波动程度最大,其次是大型高新技术企业,而整个高新技术产业波动程度较小。

This paper analyzed the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation of the high-tech industry under the influence of the independent R&D and the technology import based on the co-integration and error correction model in the form of panel data. The results indicate that the expenditure on the independent R&D has a significant positive influence on the growth of the high-tech industry in the short- and long-terms. The time interval of the impact of the expenditure on the technology import on the growth of the high-tech industry shortens gradually while its promoting effects to the output of the high-tech enterprises appear in the long run. Moreover, this paper studied the dynamic change path of the high-tech industry output under the impact of the independent R&D and the technology import by use of the impulse response function based on the structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR) in three cases: the entire high-tech industry, the large-size high-tech enterprises and the medium-sized high-tech enterprises. Seen from the fluctuation degree, the medium-sized high-tech enterprises have experienced the largest fluctuation after receiving the impacts from the independent R&D and technology import while the large-size high-tech enterprises and the entire high-tech industry rank the second and the third in fluctuation respectively.