根据"坚持以人为本,树立全面、协调、可持续的发展观,促进经济社会和人的全面发展"的科学发展观内涵,通过R聚类和因子分析建立中国省份科技评价指标体系。根据科技产出、科技对经济和社会的影响、科技投入等准则,通过指标数值变化方法确定指标权重,建立基于指标数值变化的科技评价模型,并采用我国14个典型省份2009年的科技数据进行实证研究。本文的创新及特色一是根据特定指标数值变化前、变化后两种状态对评价结果的影响程度来确定该指标的权重。体现对评价结果影响越大的指标、对应权重越大的赋权思路。改变现有研究在确定权重时忽略了指标值变化对评价结果影响程度大小的问题。二是万元GDP综合能耗、科技进步贡献率、工业固体废物综合利用率、高技术产品出口额、高技术产业总产值占工业总产值比重等五个评价指标对省份科技发展起着至关重要的作用。这五个评价指标的权重之和高达0.615 0。
Abstract
According to the connotation of the scientific outlook on development: "insisting on human-oriented, creating the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable outlook on development, and promoting the overall development of economy, society and human", this paper establishes an indicators system to evaluate science and technology (S&T) among Chinese provinces based on the R cluster and factor analysis. According to the evaluation principles which include the S&T output, the influence of S&T on economy and society and the S&T input, by using value change of each indicator to determine their weights, this paper constructs the S&T evaluation model based on the indicator value change, and then carries out an empirical study of 14 typical provinces of China in 2009. The contribution and special features of this paper lie in two aspects. Firstly, this paper determines the weight of indicators by comparing the result of clustering between the original indicator values and the changed ones. It reflects the idea that the greater the indicators' impact on the evaluation results is, the bigger their weights should be. This changes the situation that existing researches neglect indicators change's impact on evaluation result when determining their weights. Secondly, the five main influential indicators of S&T development are comprehensive energy consumption per ten-thousand-yuan GDP, the contribution rate of S&T progress, the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, export of high-tech products and the gross yield proportion of high-tech industries and total industries. These five indicators play an important role on the S&T development and the sum of their weight is up to 0.6150.
关键词
科学发展观 /
科技评价 /
指标数值变化 /
实证研究
Key words
scientific outlook on development /
S&T evaluation /
change of indicators’value /
empirical study
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基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"全面贯彻落实科学发展观的综合评价体系"(06&ZD039,2007.01-2010.10)。
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