基于Cressey(1953)的舞弊风险理论,本文归纳出与公司违规可能有关的压力、机会以及理性变量,以2000-2008年间被证监会查处的220家(430次)A股违规上市公司以及相应的配对样本为研究对象,通过单变量分析和条件Logistic回归分析建立了违规判别模型。得出的结论主要有:压力变量方面,财务稳定性比率、总资产增长率、资产负债率高的公司易发生违规;自由现金流、总资产周转率、国有股比重、ROA高的公司不易发生违规。机会变量方面,董事会会议频繁、董事长和CEO两职合一的公司易发生违规。理性变量方面,被出具标准审计意见类型、应计利润率高的公司不易发生违规,审计事务所变更的公司易发生违规。在建模样本和检验样本中,模型的准确率分别为81.06%和80.62%。
Abstract
Based on Cressey's (1953) fraud risk theory, the proxy variables for pressure, opportunity, and rationalization related to corporate violations are summarized. With the case study of 220 A share public firms with 430 times violations found by CSRC and matched samples in the period of 2000-2008, a discriminant modeling is built by univariate analysis and conditional Logistic analysis. The findings are as follows: in terms of pressure proxy variables, the firms with high financial stability, assets growth, and leverage are prone to violations. In terms of opportunity proxy variables, firms with frequent board meetings and a dual structure are likely to violate the regulations. In terms of rationalization proxy variables, firms with qualified audit opinion and high accrual ratio are unlikely to break the rules. Auditor change induces firms to violate the rules. The precision of the models is 81.06% and 80.62% for original and test samples, respectively.
关键词
公司违规 /
舞弊三因素 /
财务舞弊 /
Logit回归
Key words
corporate violation /
fraud triangle /
financial fraud /
Logit regression
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] Mark S Beasley. An empirical analysis of the relation between the board of director Composition and Financial Statement Fraud[J]. The Accounting Review,1996,71(4):443-465.
[2] Hugh Grove, Elisabetta Basilico. Fraudulent Financial Reporting Detection[J].Int. Studies of Mgt. & Org, 2008,38(3):10-42.
[3] Thomas A. Lee, Robert W. Ingram, Thomas P. Howard. The Difference between Earnings and Operating Cash Flow as an Indicator of Financial Reporting Fraud[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research 1999, 16(4):749-787.
[4] Persons, Obeua S,Laramie Summer. Using financial statement data to identify factors associated with fraudulent financial reporting[J]. Journal of Applied Business Research,1995,11(3).
[5] Messod D Beneish. The detection of earnings manipulation[J]. Financial Analysts Journal,1999,55(5).
[6] Spathis,M. Doumpos and C Zopounidis. Detecting falsified financial statements: a comparative study using multicriteria analysis and muitivariate statistical techniques[J]. The European Accoimting Review 2002,11(3),P509-535.
[7] Scott L Summers; John T Sweeney. Fraudulently misstated financial statements and insider trading: An Empirical Analysis[J]. The Accounting Review, 1998,73(1):131-146.
[8] Messod D Beneish. Incentives and penalties related to earnings overstatements that violate GAAP[J]. The Accounting Review, 1999,74(4):425-457.
[9] 蔡宁,梁丽珍.公司治理与财务舞弊关系的经验分析[J].财经理论与实践,2003(11).
[10] 张程睿,蹇静.我国上市公司违规信息披露的影响因素研究[J].审计研究,2008(1):75-81.
[11] 谭晓兰,李世达.信息披露质量的公司治理因素敏感性分析[J].财务与金融,2008(3):51-54.
[12] 刘立国,杜莹.公司治理与会计信息质量关系的实证研究[J].会计研究,2003(2):28-36.
[13] 梁杰,丁璇,李进中.现代公司治理结构与会计舞弊关系的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2004,7(6):47-51.
[14] 张为国,王霞. 中国上市公司会计差错的动因分析[J].会计研究,2004(4):24-29.
[15] 陈国进,林辉,王磊.公司治理、声誉机制和上市公司违法违规行为分析[J].南开管理评论,2005,8(6):35-40.
[16] 周好文,李纪建,刘婷婷. 股权结构、董事会治理与上市公司高管违规行为[J].当代经济科学,2006,28(6).
[17] 甘丽凝.证券监管、治理结构和公司违规.财会通讯[J]. 学术版2007(8).
[18] Gongmeng Chen, Michael Firth, Daniel N. Gao, Oliver M. Rui. Ownership structure, corporate governance, and fraud: Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Corporate Finance, 2006,12:424-448.
[19] XUE Feng,SHI Yu-xin.Prediction Study of Disobeying Information-disseminating Regulation of Listed Companies[J].成组技术与生产现代化,2005,22(4):48-52.
[20] 姜金玲,李延喜,高锐.基于Logistic的上市公司利润操纵行为识别模型研究[J].经济管理,2008,30(19-20):77-82.
[21] 蔡志岳,吴世农.我国上市公司信息披露违规的预警研究-基于财务、市场和治理视角[J].管理评论,2007,19(1):25-33.
[22] 李政,张文修,钟永红.我国上市公司信息披露违规预警模型的缺陷及修正[J].当代经济科学,2006,28(2):104-109.
[23] Timothy B. Bell and Joseph V. Carcello. Decision Aid for Assessing the Likelihood of Fraudulent Financial Reporting[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory,2000,19(1).
[24] 蔡志岳,吴世农.基于公司治理的信息披露舞弊预警研究[J].管理科学,2006,19(4):79-90.
[25] 沈乐平,黄维民,饶天贵.基于支持向量机的上市公司违规预警模型研究[J].中大管理研究,2008,3(2):125-135.
[26] 王斌,梁欣欣.公司治理、财务状况与信息披露质量[J].会计研究,2008(3):31-38.
[27] 綦好东.会计舞弊的经济解释[J].会计研究,2002,8:22-27.
[28] Christopher J. Skousen and Charlotte J. Wright. Contemporaneous Risk Factors and the Prediction of Financial Statement Fraud[J]. Working paper,2006.
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(70372048);教育部博士点基金资助(20070698047);教育部新世纪人才支持计划项目(NCET-07-0309)。
PDF(952 KB)
