能源是一国经济增长的重要基石,然而,随着工业化进程的加快,中国能源消费和经济增长的矛盾日益突出,因此,对二者间关系的探讨成为经济学研究的一个热点话题。但是由于研究选取的国家不同、时间序列选取的不同以及所采用的检验方法不同,所得到的结论也存在着很大差异。本文在对数据进行平稳化处理的基础上,采用E-G两步法对1953-2008年间中国能源消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,通过研究得出如下结论:虽然短期内仍存在波动,但从长期来看,经济增长和能源消费之间存在长期协整关系,且存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。
Abstract
Energy consumption plays an important role in economic development. With the industrialization increasingly quickens, the conflict between energy consumption and economic growth becomes more and more prominent. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is one of the key issues in the economic research field. However, the research results will change with different samples, different time intervals, and different testing approaches. Based on the E-G two steps methods, the cointegration analysis and Granger causality estimation are conducted to test the relationship between China's energy consumption and economic growth based on the data in the period of 1953-2008. The results show that although some short-run fluctuation exists, there is a stable equilibrium relation between them in the long-run. In addition, the single-direction causality from energy consumption to economic growth is found.
关键词
能源消费 /
经济增长 /
E-G两步法 /
格兰杰因果检验
Key words
energy consumption /
economic growth /
E-G two steps method /
Granger causality
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基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-10-0048,2010.1-2012.12);国家自然科学基金(70602021,2007.1-2009.12);北京市自然科学基金(9092015,2009.1-2011.12);北京市优秀人才支持计划(2010D009013000001,2010.10-2012.8);对外经济贸易大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目(73300004,2009.1-2011.12)。
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