产品创新、供求互动与中国经济内生增长研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 产品创新及其与需求的内在互动,能够促进产品创新、创造新需求和提高产品附加值,帮助企业消化过剩和渡过成本上升危机,是当前中国经济实现内生增长的重要驱动因素之一。基于SVAR模型的脉冲响应分析表明,中国大中型工业企业的新产品开发投入与新产品销售收入或新产品市场需求之间具有一定的互动作用,新产品销售收入或新产品市场需求的增长能对新产品开发投入产生显著的拉动作用,并且拉动作用能由强到弱地持续三年时间;新产品开发投入的增长则在两年后能对新产品销售收入和GDP产生正向的推动作用。同时,新产品销售收入的增长能对GDP产生显著的正向推动作用,并且作用能持续五年。但通过分析也能发现,GDP增长对新产品开发投入和新产品的销售收入或需求存在一定的抑制影响,在一定程度上反映了中国经济增长的粗放性。基于SVAR模型的方差分解表明,新产品开发投入变动来自新产品销售收入的贡献率达到44.6%,进一步表明产品创新与市场需求之间存在很强的互动关系;GDP的变动来自新产品销售收入的贡献率达到40%左右。当前,加快企业产品创新及相关技术进步,应当是中国加快向内生性增长转变的一个重要的政策着力点,政府应当通过科技政策和科技投入有效推进企业产品创新及服务于产品创新的技术进步和设备升级,同时配合以积极的财政和收入政策来提高消费能力,从根本上促进产品创新及其与需求的内在互动。

关键词: 产品创新, 供求互动, 内生增长, SVAR模型

Abstract: Product innovation and the interaction between supply and demand could create new demand and heighten added value, and also could help enterprise to defuse overproduction crisis and deal with the crisis of increasing input costs, therefore, it is one of the most important powers for improving economic growth. The response analysis of impulse function method based on SVAR model also reveals the interaction between the inputs of developing new product and the sales revenue of new product or the market demand for new product in large-scale and medium-scale industrial enterprises in China. It is found that the sales revenue of new product or the market demand for new product could remarkably improve the inputs for developing new product, and this effect could continue for three years. The inputs for developing new product could improve the sales revenue of new product and GDP two years later. At the same time, the sales revenue of new product could remarkably improve GDP, and the effect could continue for five years. It is also found that the growth of GDP could restrain the inputs for developing new product and sales revenue for new product or market demand of new product in such a manner, and the fact could reveal extensive mode of economic growth in a way. The analysis of variance decomposition method reveals that the contribution rate of the sales revenue of new product to the inputs change for developing new product is reached at 44.6%, and the contribution rate of the sales revenue of new product to the growth of GDP is reached at 40%. At present, some policies should be formulated and the inputs for product innovation and related technology development should be increased, and cousumption should be enlarged through active fiscal policy and income policy. The interaction between the inputs for developing new product and the market demand for new product should be fundamentally improved.

Key words: product innovation, interaction between supply and demand, endogenous growth, SVAR model

中图分类号:

F061. 2

张超. 产品创新、供求互动与中国经济内生增长研究[J]. 科研管理, 2011, 32(10): 18-26.

Zhang Chao. The relation among product innovation, interaction of supply and demand,and endogenous growth in China[J]. Science Research Management, 2011, 32(10): 18-26.

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