摘要：在建立竞争条件下基于不完全信息和有限理性的不对称企业古诺博弈模型的过程中，提出了企业结合竞争对手的产量来调整竞争对手边际成本估计值的学习方式，推导了企业在产量调整阶段的产量和边际利润的表达式，并归纳出了在利润最大化原则下市场达到均衡状态的条件，在此基础上通过算例求解得到了存在先发优势或先发劣势时的技术溢出水平的临界值。 关键词：不完全信息；有限理性；古诺博弈模型；先发优势；先发劣势

Abstract： In the establishment process of asymmetric Cournot game model based on the incomplete information and bounded rationality, a approach for adjusting the competitor’s marginal cost estimation is put forward according to the competitor’s practical outputs, the expressions of production output and marginal profit during the adjustment phase is found out, the restriction terms for reaching equilibrium conditions under the principle of profit maximization in the market are summed up. At last, the threshold value of technology spillover level for distinguishing the first mover advantages or first mover disadvantages is calculated by means of the numerical example.