文章首先用技术S曲线方法对技术轨道的形成机制进行了简单说明，重点解释了技术突破和技术跃迁。然后说明了S曲线方法的局限性，接着介绍专利引用指标“技术循环时间”，并提出假设：“技术循环时间”曲线斜率的显著变化可以说明技术的更新换代及技术进步，并运用回归模型对假设进行了验证。文章最后探讨了技术循环时间与授权专利数量的相关性。

 The concept of technological trajectory, technological transition, and operation mechanism of technological trajectory are briefly illustrated by use of technology S-curve, then the limitations of the method of S-curve are explained, patent cited indicators “technology cycle time” are introduced. The assumption is proposed， namely, the change of the “technology cycle time” slope can indicate the upgrading of technology and technological progress. By use of the regression model, the assumption is verified. The relation between technological cyclic time and patent quantity is discussed in the end.