本文利用我国1985-2005年省际面板数据，构建门槛模型实证分析外商直接投资(FDI)技术溢出及其区域创新能力“门槛效应”。研究表明：FDI技术溢出在我国存在显著的创新能力“双门槛效应”；1987年以来，我国大部分省份已进入中等创新能力区域，FDI的流入对这些省份都存在显著的正溢出效应，但由于还未进入高创新能力区域，这些省份对溢出效应的吸收还不够充分。这为我国坚持实施“以市场换技术”战略，努力提高区域创新能力以充分发挥FDI对技术的促进作用提供了实证支持。

Abstract: A threshold model is constructed based on Chinese panel data to analysis the technology spillovers of FDI and its “threshold effect” of regional innovation capability. The results show that the technology spillovers of FDI have the “dual-threshold effect” based on the regional innovation capability. Since 1987, most provinces in China have entered into the region of middle innovation capability, so the technology spillovers of FDI became significant in these provinces. However, the technology spillovers effect is absorbed insufficiently, because these provinces have not entered into the region of high innovation capability. The empirical results approve that the “market for technology” strategy should be implemented unceasingly and the regional innovation capability should be improved, in order to absorb the technology spillovers of FDI sufficiently in China.