科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 131-138 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

不连续技术机会窗口的进入时机抉择

姜黎辉1,2，张朋柱1 ，龚毅2   




  1. 1上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院，上海200052；
    2郑州轻工业学院经济与管理学院,河南 郑州450002
  • 收稿日期:2008-06-30 修回日期:2008-08-18 出版日期:2009-01-01 发布日期:2009-01-01

Entrance time of window opportunity in the context of discontinuous technological change

Jiang Lihui1,2, Zhang Pengzhu1 , Gong Yi2   

  1. 1. Antai School of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China;
    2. School of Economics & Management, Zhengzhou Institute of Light Industry, Zhengzhou 450002, China)
  • Received:2008-06-30 Revised:2008-08-18 Online:2009-01-01 Published:2009-01-01

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摘要： 多个产业技术演化发展历程表明，不连续技术的出现为各企业重构竞争优势提供了机会，同时，相关实证研究表明，当新技术机会窗口(Window Opportunity)时间短于三年，企业进入机会窗口的时机抉择不当时，企业在技术研发和市场营销投资的失败率高达80%；通过构建模型，本文分析不连续技术出现情形下的机会窗口动态演化特征。研究发现，企业进入机会窗口的时机受到技术扩散特征、产品扩散特征、企业创新模仿的羊群行为以及先行者优势构建成本等多个要素的综合影响，企业需要把握机会窗口的演变特征并结合自身实力特征选择最佳进入时机以获得良好的创新绩效。

关键词: 不连续技术, 机会窗口, 创新管理

Abstract: Technological evolution courses of many industries indicate that discontinuous technology appearance provides opportunity for manufacturing enterprises to re-establish their competitive advantage. Related empirical research indicates that failure rates of investment on R&D and marketing are up to 80%, if selected entrance time of window opportunity is wrong and the window opportunity is less than 3 years. Through constructing model, the dynamic change characteristic of window opportunity is analyzed in the context of discontinuous technological change. Choice of entrance time of window opportunity is affected by technology diffusion, product diffusion, innovation imitational herd behaviors, and the cost for forming first mover advantage. Enterprises should grasp dynamic change characteristic of window opportunity based on their capability to choose the suitable entrance time of window opportunity in order to gain fine innovation performance.

Key words: discontinuous technology, window opportunity, innovation management

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