关键词: 财务预警, 短期, 长期, SGR模型

Abstract: Abstract: Considering the deficiencies in the recent researches on financial crisis prediction, firstly, financial crisis prediction of listed companies was divided into short-term financial crisis prediction and long-term financial crisis prediction by using the data of semi-annual financial reports or annual financial reports in the research process, and then using the method of logistic model combining with step by step regression analysis, the prediction was researched. In short-term study of financial crisis prediction, the model built by the data from the first quarter financial reports will be more timely and effective than that from semi-annual financial reports through comparative researching. In long-term study of financial crisis prediction, in order to build an effective long-term financial crisis prediction model ,non-financial indicators which have important economics meaning should be considered according to the results of empirical research after introducing the indicators that reflect actual growth deviation extent from sustainable growth. Key words: financial crisis prediction; short-term; long-term; SGR model