摘要：本文利用我国近二三十年来的人均可支配收入、人均消费支出以及消费物价指数，通过协整分析和建立误差修正模型，模拟了我国城镇居民的效用函数；在考虑消费物价快速上涨和人均可支配收入的不断提高的背景下，采用等价性变化、补偿性变化以及消费者剩余变化，衡量了城镇居民的福利水平变动。本文不仅将城镇居民的福利水平定量化，而且还得出了一些重要结论：虽然单纯的物价上涨减少了城镇居民福利，单纯的可支配收入上升增加了城镇居民福利，但2007年在2006年基础上的消费物价上涨和可支配收入增加并未降低城镇居民福利。

Abstract： The utility function of town inhabitant is simulated, though cointegration and error correction model based on disposable income, expenditure, and CPI for recent twenty years; the variationof town inhabitant’s welfare level is measured, by the equivalent variation & compensating variation and variation of consumer’s surplus, when the rising of CPI and the increasing of disposable income. Not only the welfare of town inhabitant is quantified, but also some important conclusions is found: even though the rising of CPI only reduces town inhabitant’s welfare, the increasing of disposable income still improves town inhabitant’s welfare. In conclusion, the welfare of town inhabitantin 2007 is better than in 2006.