摘要：本文利用1999-2006年江苏省分行业面板数据，考察了FDI技术溢出对江苏制造业产出增长的影响。研究结果表明：在静态和动态面板数据模型中，水平溢出效应由负转正，由不显著到显著，说明FDI具有“挤出效应”的说法并不成立。FDI前向关联溢出效应并不显著，后向关联溢出为正且显著，后向关联溢出是比水平溢出更重要的溢出途径。资本和劳动都是促进江苏产出增长的重要因素，资本对产出增长的作用更多的体现在当年引致的投资需求上。

Abstract： The panel data of 1999-2006 years are used to analyze the FDI technology spillover to the manufacture industry in Jiangsu province. The results indicate that in the static model and dynamic model, the horizontal spillover effect changes from negative to positive, and from insignificant to significant; it shows that the crowding-out effect is not been found. FDI forward spillover is insignificant and backward spillover is positive and significant. The backward spillover is more important way comparing with the horizontal spillover. The capital and the labor force are all the important factors to promote the output. The capital’s effects on output are embodied in the increasing demand incurred by the investment.