针对现有新兴技术评估方法的不足，分析了将情景规划应用于新兴技术动态评估的思路与方法；在此基础上，开发了一个新兴技术动态评估的过程模型，并以微硬盘技术为例，说明了该模型的特点与应用过程。  

  Aimed at the current status that the existing assessment methods for emerging technologies are insufficient, the ideas and methodologies using scenario planning in dynamic assessment for emerging technologies are analyzed. Then, on this basis, a model of the dynamic assessment process for emerging technologies is developed. And a technology named MagicStor is taken as a instance; the traitsand application process of the model are illustrated.