本文确定了风险度指标阀值,运用信号法,建立了中小企业信用担保机构预警模型,引入灰色系统理论,建立中小企业信用担保机构预测模型,在此基础上,建立了预警模型和预测模型为一体的中小企业信用担保机构综合风险预警系统,并运用实例进行了验证。所建立的综合风险预警系统对担保机构整体风险的控制提供有效的方法。

The thresholds of risk indexes are presented.A risk warning model by the signal theory and a risk prediction model by the gray system theory for SME credit guarantee institutions are set up.Based on those models,a comprehensive risk warning system for SME credit guarantee institutions integrating the pre-warning model and the prediction model is establised.The system is tested by examples.The comprehensive risk warning system will provide credit guarantee institutions an effective ways to control their risks.