新兴技术常常能够彻底改变一个行业结构。本文从新兴技术与不连续创新的关系入手,分析了新兴技术的特性,提出了反映新兴技术性能特征的“技术创新的边际效应曲线”,并在Foster的技术S曲线理论的基础上,给出了区分新兴技术与非新兴技术的“新性能过滤线”概念,为企业面临新技术时如何进行技术选择提供了理论依据。

Emerging technologies usually could change the structure of a industry.The characteristics of emerging technologies are illustrated and "marginal utility of technological innovations" is put forward.Based on the theory of S curve of technology by Foster,a new concept "the filter-line for an emerging technology" is proposed.The concept is used to differentiate emerging technologies from non-emerging techologies.The "filter-line" is a usable tool for an enterprise to select emerging technologies when confronting with a number of new technologies.