论文借鉴金融期权定价的思想和方法,通过建立R&D升级投资价值的柔性化评估模型,获得了R&D升级投资期权价值的解析式与最优投资准则。通过数值分析发现一个与传统相反的结论,R&D升级投资期权价值随无风险利率r和项目价值的波动率上升而下降,但随投资延迟损失率上升而上升。随后对这种结果进行了详细的解释,并分析了形成传统结论的原因。最后通过案例分析进一步阐释R&D升级投资的投资决策。

The thesis draws lessons from thought and method of financial option pricing model, through setting up flexible model for valuation the value of R&D upgrading, has obtained analytic formula and optimal investment criteria. Through numerical analysis the thesis finds one conclusion contrary to tradition, R&D upgrade investment options worth has positive relationship with risk interest rate and fluctuation rate, but negative relationship with the rate of loss delaying. The thesis has carried on the detailed explanation to this kind of result afterwards, then analyzed the reason for forming the traditional conclusion. The thesis explains investment decision of R&D upgrading through case analysis finally.