根据技术创新沿着一定的轨道和方向发展的事实,多西第一个提出了技术轨道的概念。本文系统地介绍了技术轨道概念的产生和发展,并对行业技术轨道的形成机制进行了模拟,同时引入逻辑曲线对技术轨道的刚性和突破进行了说明。本文还运用路径依赖理论对行业技术轨道的经济效率进行了评价。

According to the fact that technological innovation develops in a certain track and direction, Dosi initially put forward the concept of technological trajectory. This paper systemically introduces the origin and development of technological trajectory, simulates operation mechanism of technological trajectory of industrial and uses logistic curves to show its rigidity and breakthrough. Thereafter, the paper uses path-dependence theory to evaluate economic efficiency of technological trajectory of industrial.