技术预见在科技发展战略、政策和规划制定中的作用日益显著,受到政府、学术界和社会公众的广泛关注。德尔菲调查是技术预见最常用的方法。本文在借鉴国内外德尔菲调查问卷设计经验基础上,提出了一套适合"中国未来20年技术预见研究"需要的德尔菲调查问卷问题设计、技术课题产生和德尔菲调查问卷统计分析方法。最后,作者提出了未来德尔菲调查方法研究中需要进一步思考的问题。

Technology Foresight plays increasingly important role in strategy-, policy- and planning-making of science and technology, and therefore receives highly attention from government, academia and the public. The Delphi survey is one of the most popular tools in the technology foresight, in which questionnaire-designing plays critical role. Based on the foreign and domestic experiences in questionnaire-designing for Delphi survey, this paper develops a methodology for Delphi survey including questionnaire-designing, topics selection and statistical method of survey results so as to meet the requirements of .Technology Foresight of China towards 2020. Finally, the paper points out that there are still many questions in methodology concerning future Delphi survey.