关键词: 主流创新, 新流创新, 模糊认知图, 动态绩效

Abstract:  The action of “Made in China 2025” points out that innovation should be given a prominent position in the development of manufacturing industry and the path of innovation-driven development should be followed. Innovation is the foundation of enterprises’ survival as well as the guarantee of realizing the strategy of strengthening China through science and technology. In the face of the fierce competition, enterprises should not only improve and upgrade the traditional technology to extend the life cycle, but also strive to develop new technology to keep ahead before the decline of traditional technology. We can subdivide the enterprise’s innovation activities into traditional mainstream innovation and emerging new stream innovation. However, none of the existing studies have been able to subdivide the innovation activity before the performance evaluation, and almost all of the studies just focus on the static evaluation, which is not conducive to accurately grasp the advantages and disadvantages of traditional and emerging innovation fields and also lacks the ability of dynamic prediction of performance, and the ability to analyze the impact mechanism of key variables on dynamic performance.
Therefore, this paper adopted the method of combining theoretical reasoning with empirical research. Firstly, the innovation activities were divided into mainstream and new stream innovation, and the semi-structural interview method was used to obtain the key variables which will affect the dynamic performance of mainstream and new stream innovation through open communication with the heads of scientific research department, senior managers of enterprise, experts and scholars of universities; secondly, according to the definition of the variables, qualitative clustering method was adopted to classify the variables, a dynamic performance evaluation system was constructed, the fuzzy cognitive maps were drawn to highlight the characteristics of mainstream and new stream innovation and to reflect the causal relationship between the evaluation variables, and the adjacency matrix was constructed by synthesizing the experts’ opinion and Hebbian learning weight; thirdly, regarding the R&D activities of traditional fuel vehicles of company A as mainstream innovation and the R&D activities of new energy vehicles as new stream innovation, taking the index value of 2016 as the initial state value, using the MATLAB software to simulate the evolution process of dynamic innovation performance of mainstream and new stream; finally, according to the adjacency matrix, the center degree of the variable was calculated, and the influencing mechanism of key variables on dynamic performance was explored.
The case study showed that the fuzzy cognitive map can clearly reflect the logical relationship between the variables of the mainstream and new stream innovation system, the adjacency matrix and threshold function can simulate the future evolution trend of innovation performance and explore the mechanism of key variables on dynamic performance. For example, the evolution of innovation performance of traditional fuel vehicles is affected by the following variables, such as the innovation efficiency of scientific research team, the external market competition, the innovation incentive mechanism, the entrepreneur’s innovation consciousness, the innovation ability, the innovation frequency and the marketing strength and so on. On the other hand, the innovation performance of new energy is mainly affected by the following variables, such as the forward looking of the R&D team, the dynamic capability of the R&D team, the government subsidies, the innovation culture of risk-preference, the technology foundation, the innovation frequency, the financial subsidies for product sales and the adoption rate of predictive customer’s suggestion.
According to the results of empirical analysis, this paper put forward the following suggestions. In terms of mainstream innovation management: (1) in order to strengthen the innovation foundation, the decision-makers should pay attention to cultivate the innovation ability, cooperate with the universities and research institutes, increase the internal fund investment and optimize the R&D team; (2) the enterprises should create an innovative corporate culture, optimize product design and production process, strengthen technical research in key areas, increase the number of technical innovation projects, and improve the frequency of innovation to achieve technological breakthrough；(3) the enterprises should optimize the innovation incentive mechanism to active the innovation atmosphere, and improve the innovation efficiency of the R&D team; (4) the enterprises must pay attention to the selection of marketing methods, through market research, reasonably determine the publicity media to improve the effectiveness of publicity; (5) the government should raise the threshold of innovation subsidies, establish a selection mechanism and elimination mechanism, strengthen the positive incentive effect of subsidies on standardizing and trustworthy enterprises, and implement a subsidy withdrawal mechanism to force the enterprises to carry out technological innovation. In addition, in the process of new stream innovation, it is necessary to emphasize the forward-looking of R&D team to achieve technological leadership; to pay attention to cultivate the innovative dynamic ability; to create an innovative and risk taking culture; to strengthen the effective communication between upstream and downstream enterprises, internal departments, enterprises and consumers; to improve the performance of products by the suggestions from business partners and customers.
The innovations of this paper were shown as follows: two dynamic performance evaluation index systems were constructed which can reflect the different characteristics between mainstream and new stream, two fuzzy cognitive maps were drawn to show the causal relationship between the dynamic evaluation variables, the weighting method of the adjacency matrix was improved, the key influencing variables of dynamic performance were identified by using the centrality theory, the influencing mechanism of the key influencing variables on the dynamic performance were simulated with the computer.
This paper is useful for the managers to make dynamic prediction of innovation performance, for decision-makers to grasp the difference of innovation performance between enterprise’s traditional and emerging technology, and to realize the whole-process monitoring of innovation performance. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical significance and practical value.

Key words: mainstream, new stream, fuzzy cognitive map, dynamic performance