科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 64-69 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于专利的技术跃迁实证研究

黄鲁成，蔡爽   


  1. 
    北京工业大学 经济管理学院，北京 100124
  • 收稿日期:2008-05-23 修回日期:2009-01-06 出版日期:2009-01-01 发布日期:2009-01-01

An empirical study on the technological transition based on patents

Huang Lucheng, Cai Shuang    

  1. School of Economics & Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • Received:2008-05-23 Revised:2009-01-06 Online:2009-01-01 Published:2009-01-01

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摘要： 文章首先用技术S曲线方法对技术轨道的形成机制进行了简单说明，重点解释了技术突破和技术跃迁。然后说明了S曲线方法的局限性，接着介绍专利引用指标“技术循环时间”，并提出假设：“技术循环时间”曲线斜率的显著变化可以说明技术的更新换代及技术进步，并运用回归模型对假设进行了验证。文章最后探讨了技术循环时间与授权专利数量的相关性。

关键词: 技术跃迁, 技术创新, 技术循环时间

Abstract:  The concept of technological trajectory, technological transition, and operation mechanism of technological trajectory are briefly illustrated by use of technology S-curve, then the limitations of the method of S-curve are explained, patent cited indicators “technology cycle time” are introduced. The assumption is proposed， namely, the change of the “technology cycle time” slope can indicate the upgrading of technology and technological progress. By use of the regression model, the assumption is verified. The relation between technological cyclic time and patent quantity is discussed in the end.

Key words: technological transition, technological innovation, technological cyclic time

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