关键词: 航运市场, 中美贸易战, LT-TVP-VAR模型, 航运运价指数

Abstract:     Shipping serves as the fundamentals of the global industrial chain and the vitals of the global economy and trade. The changing situation of economic trade caused by the China-US competition has broken the principles of the development of the shipping market. Such structural changes under unconventional economic conditions are seldom seen in the shipping market. Under these circumstances, the study of the time-varying impact of the China-US trade war on the shipping market is of great significance for the risk management of China′s shipping market and the prediction of global economic and trade trends. By establishing the LT-TVP-VAR model measuring the impacts of the policy trade variables on the shipping market variables during the period of 2004-2021, this paper analyzed the dynamic mechanisms of the time-varying responses of the shipping market under the China-US trade war, quantified the threshold effect of the China-US trade war on the shipping market, and characterized the time-varying effect of the policy trade variables on the shipping market variables from both the magnitude and duration of the impulse response. The empirical results indicated that: (1) the shipping market responds more intensively to the net exports of the US than to the net imports of China, and more intensively to the foreign direct investment of China than to that of the US. Also, the response intensities of the used ship price index, container throughput and the global freight rate index are larger than those of the new ship price index and global seaborne trade. (2) The impacts of the import and export volumes and the foreign direct investments between China and the US on the shipping market last for more than 3 years, with the intensity of the 3-year lagging impulse response being the largest. The impact of the bilateral tariffs between China and the US on the shipping market is more reflected in the short term. (3) The impacts of the foreign direct investment of the US and the China-US bilateral tariff on the new ship price index possess cyclical characteristics, while the impacts of the import and export volume, the foreign direct investment and the bilateral tariff on container throughput between China and the US all show cyclical fluctuations.The theoretical contributions of this paper are mainly twofold: firstly, the LT-TVP-VAR model measuring the impacts of the tariff, import and export volume and foreign direct investment on the shipping market was established to reveal the nonlinear and time-varying impacts of the China-US trade war on the shipping market, which further enriches the literature on the impact of China-US trade war. The fact that the threshold admissibility rate of the LT-TVP-VAR model is basically above 30% indicated the existence of a significant threshold effect, which means that the selected model can achieve better fitting results than traditional models and can effectively identify the potential structural changes in the shipping market. Second, after the financial crisis and COVID-19, the mechanism of the impacts of major events on the shipping market was further explored. Unlike other major events, the China-US trade war can significantly change the global trade situation and investment environment, which has both direct and indirect impacts on the shipping market. This paper analyzed the impacts of the China-US trade war on the shipping market from various perspectives including taxation, trade and investment. This paper will not only help the shipping market participants get a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of the China-US trade war on different sectors of the shipping market and their internal relationships, and hence reduce the negative consequences caused by the dramatic fluctuations of the shipping market, but also provide insightful references for regulatory authorities for making forward-looking and targeted policies.

Key words: shipping market, Sino-US trade war, LT-TVP-VAR model, shipping freight index