科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 13-20.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

颠覆性技术的演化轨迹及早期识别—以智能手机等技术为例

苏敬勤1，刘建华2，王智琦3，陈悦3，姜照华3   

  1. 1大连理工大学管理与经济学部，辽宁 大连116023；
    2 郑州大学管理工程学院，河南 郑州450000；
    3大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所暨WESLAB实验室，辽宁 大连116023
  • 出版日期:2016-03-20 发布日期:2016-03-09
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目（71033002，PORC框架下的国家自主创新体系国际化理论与政策研究）; 国家自然科学基金项目（71540006，基于DSGE模型的新能源汽车产业协同创新体系研究）。

The evolution trajectory and early identification of disruptive technology by taking smartphones and other technologies as an example

Su Jingqin1, Liu Jianhua2, Wang Zhiqi3, Chen Yue3, Jiang Zhaohua3   

  1. 1. School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China;
    2.School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, Henan, China;
    3. Research Institute for Science of Science and S&T Management，
    Dalian University of Technology，WESLAB，Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
  • Online:2016-03-20 Published:2016-03-09

摘要： 本文基于技术轨道理论和德温特创新专利引文索引(Derwent Innovation Index，DII)数据库，利用Python编程语言获取专利引用数据，以智能手机技术颠覆传统手机技术等为例，分析了专利量、专利引用量和专利引用率等随时间变化的JΛL型曲线，从而揭示了颠覆性技术的演化轨道，建立了颠覆性技术演化的分析框架，并提出了“专利影响因子”这一计量指标，提高了对颠覆性技术进行早期识别的准确性，以期为相关研究者提供有益的启示。

关键词: 颠覆性技术, 专利影响因子, 演化轨道, 早期识别

Abstract: Based on the theory of technology trajectory, this paper, by taking how smartphone technology subverts the traditional mobile phone technology as an example, analyzes the JΛL curve of the amount of patents, patent citation and patent citation rate over time by patents’ citation information, which is crawled down by applying the Python programming in Derwent Innovation Index database. The result reveals the smartphone’s technology evolution trajectory, establishes the analysis framework of disruptive technology evolution and proposes the patent impact factor to realize the early identification of disruptive technology, hoping to provide researchers with useful information.

Key words: disruptive technology, patent impact factor, evolution trajectory, early identification