中国货币需求函数的模型估计及政策建议

科研管理 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 136-143.

中国货币需求函数的模型估计及政策建议

董慧君¹, 宋吟秋¹, 吕萍²

1. 中国科学院大学管理学院, 北京 100190;
2. 中国科学技术大学管理学院, 安徽合肥 230026

收稿日期:2014-07-28 修回日期:2015-01-26 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2015-08-19
通讯作者: 宋吟秋
作者简介:董慧君(1988-),女(汉),山东威海人,中国科学院大学管理学院,硕士生,研究方向:宏观经济政策。
宋吟秋(1960-),女(汉),江苏无锡人,中国科学院大学管理学院,教授,研究方向:财政和金融。
吕萍(1962-),女(汉),湖北武汉人,中国科学技术大学管理学院,副教授,研究方向:项目管理、工程建设供应链管理。
基金资助:
我国行业空间预测研究 (Y32901MEB1), 中国科学院管理科学预测科学研究中心支持;科研经费的成本收益研究(O9410411G2), 大中型企业委托。

Themodel estimation and policysuggestions of the Chinese Money Demand Function

Dong Huijun¹, Song Yinqiu¹, Lv Ping²

1. School of Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
2. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Anhui, China

Received:2014-07-28 Revised:2015-01-26 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2015-08-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文根据误差修正模型,运用1992-2012年的年度数据估计中国的货币需求函数,发现M₁、M₂的实际余额与持有货币的机会成本、通货膨胀率、实际GDP之间存在长期的稳定关系,但是,短期中,M₁、M₂的货币需求函数稳定性不强。并且,随着利率市场化的推进和金融市场的不断完善,货币需求函数的不稳定性可能会增强,所以短期货币增长率无法准确由短期货币需求模型估算,我们应该适时调整货币政策的中介指标,提高货币政策效果,以促进中国经济的健康发展。

关键词: 货币需求, 误差修正模型, 利率弹性, 收入弹性, 政策建议

Abstract: Based on the co-integration test findings, this paper constructs an error correctionmodel (ECM) to evaluate the dynamic adjustment process of money demand in China from 1992 to 2012. The co-integration test suggests that a certain long-run relationship exists among money demand, real income, inflation rate and interest rate. But, the ECM shows that the dynamic adjustment process of money demand maintains unstable. Moreover, with the constant promotion of interest rate liberalization and the improvement of financial markets, the money demand function will become much more unstable than before. Therefore, the short-term money growth rate cannot be predicted precisely, we should adjust the intermediate targets of monetary policy timely to promote the healthy development of China's economy.

Key words: money demand, ECM, interest rate elasticity, income elasticity, policy suggestions

中图分类号:

F204

董慧君, 宋吟秋, 吕萍. 中国货币需求函数的模型估计及政策建议[J]. 科研管理, 2015, 36(8): 136-143.

Dong Huijun, Song Yinqiu, Lv Ping. Themodel estimation and policysuggestions of the Chinese Money Demand Function[J]. Science Research Management, 2015, 36(8): 136-143.

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