本文根据误差修正模型,运用1992-2012年的年度数据估计中国的货币需求函数,发现M1、M2的实际余额与持有货币的机会成本、通货膨胀率、实际GDP之间存在长期的稳定关系,但是,短期中,M1、M2的货币需求函数稳定性不强。并且,随着利率市场化的推进和金融市场的不断完善,货币需求函数的不稳定性可能会增强,所以短期货币增长率无法准确由短期货币需求模型估算,我们应该适时调整货币政策的中介指标,提高货币政策效果,以促进中国经济的健康发展。
Abstract
Based on the co-integration test findings, this paper constructs an error correctionmodel (ECM) to evaluate the dynamic adjustment process of money demand in China from 1992 to 2012. The co-integration test suggests that a certain long-run relationship exists among money demand, real income, inflation rate and interest rate. But, the ECM shows that the dynamic adjustment process of money demand maintains unstable. Moreover, with the constant promotion of interest rate liberalization and the improvement of financial markets, the money demand function will become much more unstable than before. Therefore, the short-term money growth rate cannot be predicted precisely, we should adjust the intermediate targets of monetary policy timely to promote the healthy development of China's economy.
关键词
货币需求 /
误差修正模型 /
利率弹性 /
收入弹性 /
政策建议
Key words
money demand /
ECM /
interest rate elasticity /
income elasticity /
policy suggestions
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基金
我国行业空间预测研究 (Y32901MEB1), 中国科学院管理科学预测科学研究中心支持;科研经费的成本收益研究(O9410411G2), 大中型企业委托。
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