科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 29-37.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国二氧化碳减排过程中的技术偏向研究

周喜君1,2,郭淑芬1   

  1. 1山西财经大学资源型经济转型研究院，山西 太原030006；
    2忻州师范学院经管系，山西 忻州034000
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-27 修回日期:2017-06-28 出版日期:2018-05-20 发布日期:2018-05-21
  • 通讯作者: 郭淑芬
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号：71173141)，起止时间：2012.1-2015.12；山西省教育厅人文社科基地项目（2015324），起止时间：2015.3-2017.5；山西省哲学社会科学项目，起止时间：2015.12-2017.12；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“基于负责任创新理论的煤炭清洁利用规制政策研究”（17YJA630025）。

A research on technological bias in the process of carbon dioxide emission reduction in China

Zhou Xijun 1,2, Guo Shufen1   

  1. 1. Resource-Based Economic Transformation Research Institute, Shanxi University of Economics and Finance, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China；
    2. Department of Economics and Management, Xinzhou Teachers University, Xinzhou 034000, Shanxi, China
  • Received:2015-07-27 Revised:2017-06-28 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-21

摘要： 厘清CO2减排过程中的技术偏向性是政府制定技术减排政策的基础。本文基于作用机理差异，建立了CO2排放影响因素模型，并以中国1984-2013年CO2排放相关时间序列数据为样本，利用协整分析技术对中国CO2减排过程中是否存在技术偏向进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：研究期内，中国CO2减排是存在技术偏向的，且显著偏向于能源生产技术，而这与实践中观察到的情况不一致。文章进一步基于情景分析后认为，之所以在实证检验中出现能源生产技术贡献显著大于能源利用技术的现象，部分原因与“回弹效应”有关。因此，中国应从促进能源技术创新、改革CO2减排考核方式及重视建筑节能、产业结构调整等方面进一步落实减排政策。

关键词: CO2, 技术进步, 技术偏向, 协整分析, 回弹效应

Abstract: It is basic to definite the technological bias in process of carbon dioxide emission reduction of China for making emission reduction policy. Basing on the difference of mechanism of action, the model of effective factors to carbon dioxide emission was established in the paper. Taking the data of emission of 1984-2013 as samples, technological bias in the process of carbon dioxide emission reduction of China was experimentally tested through co-integration technology. The result shows that biases do exist, and technological bias leans to energy production technology rather than energy utilization technology, this is inconsistent with observation in practice. Through analysis, the reason why production technology made greater contribution than utilization did, in measurement results is related to the “Rebound Effect”. Therefore, the relevant advices for implementing the emission policy of China were, improving energy technology creativity, revolving the examining ways, saving energy in constructions and adjusting industrial structure etc.

Key words: carbon dioxide, technological progress, technological bias, co-integration analysis, rebound effect