中小企业生存分析—以湖南省工业企业为样本

科研管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 103-111,148.

中小企业生存分析—以湖南省工业企业为样本

曹裕, 陈晓红, 王傅强

中南大学商学院,湖南长沙 410083

收稿日期:2009-02-17 修回日期:2010-09-02 出版日期:2011-05-27 发布日期:2011-06-14
作者简介:曹裕(1985年-),女(汉), 湖南益阳人,中南大学商学院博士研究生,研究方向:不确定性决策,企业生命周期,企业生存。陈晓红(1963年-),女(汉),湖南长沙人,中南大学商学院院长,博士生导师,研究方向:信息系统,决策理论与应用。王傅强(1984年-),男(汉),湖南湘潭人,中南大学商学院博士研究生,研究方向:创业风险管理,中小企业成长;委托代理与机制设计理论。
基金资助:
国家自然科学青年基金项目(71001108/G0114,2011-2013);教育部人文社科基金青年项目(09YJC790262, 2010-2012);国家自然科学基金创新群体科学基金项目(70921001/G0104, 2010-2012)。

The survival analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises—based on the industry of Hunan Province

Cao Yu, Chen Xiaohong, Wang Fuqiang

School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China

Received:2009-02-17 Revised:2010-09-02 Online:2011-05-27 Published:2011-06-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文运用湖南省1998-2007年新成立的54573家注册资本在1000万以下的工业中小企业数据具体分析了我国中小企业的生存状况及影响因素。主要的研究方法为生命表方法和加速失效时间模型等生存分析方法。研究主要发现:我国湖南省地区中小企业死亡危险随时间呈"U"型关系,企业在成立9.5年左右时死亡危险开始增大;企业原始规模、企业所在行业的行业规模以及工业增加值率、销售利润率与产值利税率三个效率指标都与企业生存存在显著的正向相关关系;但行业成长、流动资金周转率和全员劳动生产率与企业生存不存在显著的相关关系;垄断企业的生存状况更好,技术密集型中小企业的生存状况较差,区域集聚地区中小企业具有更大的死亡危险;利率对中小企业生存存在显著的负向影响,而基于城市层面的GDP增长率对中小企业生存存在显著的正向影响;相对于私营企业,湖南省地区内资企业和外资企业的生存表现更差。

关键词: 中小企业, 生存, 效率, 生命表, 加速失效时间模型

Abstract: A detailed analysis on the Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) survival and its determinants are conducted, based on a sample of 54,573 new-registered industrial SMEs in Hunan Province, whichs capitals are all below 10 million Yuan and establish during the period of 1998-2007. The main research methods used are life table method and accelerated failure time model, they are mostly used in the survival analysis. The empirical results show that the risk of enterprise death follows a U-shape pattern relationship with the time for SMEs in Hunan Province, and the death risk begins to increase after nine and half years since the establishment of enterprises. The indicators, such as the original size of enterprises, industrial sector size, industrial added value rate, sales margin and profit tax rate of output value, all have significant positive impacts on business survival. However, the industry growth, liquidity capital turnover rate, and all-personnel labor productivity have no significant correlation with the business survival; Monopoly enterprises have better living conditions, the SMEs with high intensive technology have worse living conditions, SMEs located in agglomerate regions have greater risk of death. The interest rate has a significant negative impact on the survival of SMEs. While the GDP growth rate based on the city-level has a significant positive impact on the survival of SMEs. Vis-à-vis private enterprises, the survival performance of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises in Hunan Province are even worse.

Key words: SMEs, survival, efficiency, life table method, accelerated failure-time model

中图分类号:

F403

曹裕, 陈晓红, 王傅强. 中小企业生存分析—以湖南省工业企业为样本[J]. 科研管理, 2011, 32(5): 103-111,148.

Cao Yu, Chen Xiaohong, Wang Fuqiang. The survival analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises—based on the industry of Hunan Province[J]. Science Research Management, 2011, 32(5): 103-111,148.

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