科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 13-26.DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2025.08.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

国家创新体系效能的政策组合支持路径仿真研究

寇明婷1,梁奕1,杨一帆2,杨媛棋1   

  1. 1.北京科技大学经济管理学院，北京100083；
    2.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院，北京100190

  • 收稿日期:2024-09-01 修回日期:2025-07-17 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-08-14
  • 通讯作者: 杨一帆
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目（72274012，2023.01—2026.12）；教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目（22YJA630037，2022.08—2025.12）；国家自然科学基金专项项目（L2324103，2024.01—2025.12）。

A simulation study on the policy mix support paths for the effectiveness of China′s national innovation system

Kou Mingting1, Liang Yi1, Yang Yifan2, Yang Yuanqi1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2024-09-01 Revised:2025-07-17 Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-08-14

摘要：     高水平科技自立自强背景下，我国创新政策支持力度持续强化、类型不断丰富，创新政策组合对提升国家创新体系效能的有效性和精准性正受到政策界与学术界的高度关注。本文借助系统动力学方法构建国家创新体系效能系统，通过仿真模拟深入剖析创新政策组合对国家创新体系效能的动态影响机理。研究发现，创新政策组合对国家创新体系效能的影响存在协同或替代效应，含有科技投入或创新环境政策的组合模式能够协同提升创新体系效能，而产业政策与人才投入政策间存在替代效应。此外，创新政策组合能显著优化单一政策支持效果，尤其是科技投入政策和创新环境政策对产业政策的补充与优化作用显著。然而，政策组合并非数量越多效果越好。本文研究结论揭示了提升国家创新体系效能的创新政策组合支持路径，为推动国家创新体系整体效能的提升和实现创新政策组合的有效性和精准性提供了经验启示。

关键词: 国家创新体系效能, 创新政策组合, 系统动力学, 政策仿真

Abstract:    In the context of enhancing technological selfreliance and independence, China′s supports to innovation policies have been progressively strengthened and diversified in types. The efficacy and precision of innovation policy mix in enhancing the effectiveness of the national innovation system are receiving high attention from both policymakers and academic researchers. This study employed system dynamics to construct a national innovation system effectiveness model and conducted simulations to investigate the dynamic mechanisms through which innovation policy mix influence the effectiveness of national innovation system. The findings indicated that the impact of innovation policy mix on national innovation system effectiveness manifests both synergistic and substitution effects. The mix involving technology investment or innovation environment policies exhibit a synergistic enhancement of innovation system performance, whereas substitution effects are observed between industrial policies and talent input policies. Furthermore, innovation policy mix can substantially improve the efficacy of individual policies, with particular emphasis on the complementary and optimizing roles of technology investment and innovation environment policies in supporting industrial policies. However, the study also highlighted that the efficacy of policy mix does not necessarily improve with the inclusion of more policies. The conclusions of this research will provide valuable insights into the pathways for enhancing national innovation system effectiveness through innovation policy mix and offer empirical guidance for improving the effectiveness and precision of such policies.

Key words: national innovation system effectiveness, innovation policy mix, system dynamics, policy simulation