关键词:  , 住房供给约束；产业生命周期；创新活动；分散化

Abstract:  If stringent housing supply constraints lead to a surge in urban housing prices, would the effect crowd out innovation elements and slow down the pace of urban innovation? In order to answer this question, first, this paper elaborates the theoretical mechanism by which housing supply constraints drive up housing price, thus crowding out innovation activities and leading to premature deagglomeration of industrial innovation. Recently, the central and local governments have continuously strengthened regulation of the real estate market, but the problem of overheated real estate markets and the rapid increase in housing prices has not been fundamentally resolved. Real estate, as a necessary instrument for "steady growth", plays a significant role in driving short-term economic growth. At the same time, real estate has also become a key factor in determining China′s long-term economic growth through investment and innovation activities affecting the real economy. The real economy sector has invested a lot of money in the real estate industry to obtain high profits, which has greatly crowed out the capital of the real economy sector. According to the "China Financial Stability Report (2018)" released by the People′s Bank of China, the loan balance ratio has reached 26.8%, and the newly added credit resources are too concentrated in the real estate sector. In the current critical period of economic transformation and development, innovation drive is still the key focus of China′s "strong and devoid of weakness". It is especially important to continuously cultivate and enhance independent innovation capabilities. In this paper, it is very necessary to scientifically evaluate the impact of real estate on China′s industrial innovation.The overheated real estate market will hinder China′s innovation. It has become a consensus that many scholars have conducted a lot of theoretical analysis and empirical tests on the impact of the real estate market on innovative activities these studies are mainly based on the theoretical mechanism and empirical test of the main mechanism of innovation capital investment and personnel crowding out caused by rising house prices or the expansion of the real estate market. At the same time, about these empirical researches on the real estate market, especially the relationship between house prices and innovation, the biggest difficulty encountered is endogenous problems. Urban house prices and innovation capabilities are often mutually causal, and they are also shared by many factors. So traditional estimation methods will bring large endogenous bias. Therefore, this article will start from the housing supply side, combining the life cycle process of industrial industry innovation, using exogenous shocks such as geographical constraints and international steel prices as instrumental variables, and scientifically identifying the housing supply constraints to push up housing prices, resulting in urban industrial innovation activities. Suppress this effect, and try to explain the possible mechanism behind this effect: housing supply constraints pushing up housing prices lead to the premature deagglomeration of industrial innovation, which ultimately inhibits urban innovation activities.This article expands on the following aspects based on the existing research. First, starting from the housing supply side, based on the "Nursery Cities" model constructed by Duranton and Puga, this paper explores the impact of housing supply constraints on urban innovation activities. The theoretical mechanism; the second is the use of exogenous physical geographical restrictions and international steel prices. On the one hand, the strength of the squeeze out effect of housing supply constraints on urban innovation is identified, and the mechanism behind the premature deagglomeration of innovation is verified. The intensity of the decentralization effect in the mechanism, on the other hand, effectively solves the endogenous bias, and broadly expands the related research on the impact of housing prices on innovation; the third is to start from the industrial life cycle and measure the industrial maturity of the four-digit industrial industry. It also examines the inverted "U-shaped" relationship between the level of industrial innovation and its maturity, providing empirical evidence for the changing process and trend of innovation activities with the industry life cycle.Based on the data for the Industrial Innovation Index of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2013, the paper uses exogenous shocks such as the percentage of unbuildable land and international steel prices as instruments to identify the effect of housing supply constraints on urban innovation activities. Our findings show that housing supply constraints significantly crowded out urban innovative activities by pushing up housing prices. Further analysis shows that the mechanism of the crowding out effect by which the stringent housing supply constraints forced industries to migrate from the diversified metropolises to the specialized small or medium-sized cities before its innovation vitality had been fully exerted, that is, the premature deagglomeration of innovative activities. Based on the empirical results, this paper offers some targeted policy suggestions such as promoting housing supply-side reform, implementing a differentiated residential land supply strategy and constructing a coordinate innovation network of urban agglomeration.

Key words:  housing supply constraints, industry life cycle, urban innovation, premature deagglomeration