关键词: 供给侧改革, 制造业升级, 知识溢出效应, 空间相关性, 制度供给

Abstract: China’s supply-side reform will promote the optimization of industrial structure from production, and thus its manufacturing industry is facing transformation and upgrading. It needs to be supported by more advanced production elements for the sake of its transformation from “Made in China” to “Mind in China”, therefore that can not be separated from the accumulation of knowledge accordingly. Knowledge spillover effect refers to the diffusion and recreation of knowledge, which is closely related to growth. The knowledge spillover effect makes an internal connection with the upgrading of manufacturing industry, and there are different sources of knowledge spillover effect in various types of manufacturing upgrading. Because the knowledge spillover effect of manufacturing industry is produced in the process of production, this paper builds the dynamic spatial econometric model based on the revised logarithmic Cobb Douglas production function, considering differences between the eastern, central and western China as well as institutional supply factors.
This paper inclines innovatively to the view that the upgrading of manufacturing industry can be divided into two ways on the basis of the smile curve, and together with these, the results of theoretical analysis have indicated that: First of all, the supply side of manufacturing industry includes not only the supply of institution but also essential productive factors, and as a result of the interaction between governmental behavior and market mechanism, dynamic effects in light of time are produced ultimately. What’s more, different proportion or quantity of the essential productive factors decide on different modes or scale of production. That, in turn, product output and upgrading of manufacturing will be affected too. Furthermore, knowledge spillover effect is becoming indispensable to the process of production. If there is a virtuous circle between knowledge spillover effect and technological innovation, it will help to promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry. Last but not least, as far as the space is concerned, the upgrading process of manufacturing industry involves the adjustment within the same industry along with the linkage between different industries, and then, the sources of knowledge spillover in manufacturing industry are also different. Where time is concerned, then, in the light of the importance of specialization in improving early efficiency, both MAR spillover and Poter spillover play more important roles than Jacobs spillover in the early stage of industrial development. In case the industry makes development gradually until grows up, at this point Jacobs spillover will play a more prominent role.
The results of the empirical analysis from 2010 to 2014 have shown that: Above all, there was a positive auto correlation in the progress of the manufacturing growth, that is, so called agglomeration of “hot spots” and “cold spots”. In the mean time, there were very significant positive effects of institutional supply, labor and capital of the traditional production factors made on the growth of manufacturing industry. However, the knowledge spillover effect was not significant in the eastern China.What’s more, the significant positive MAR spillover was greater than that of the Poter spillover in the central China, therefore a conclusion was drawn that it’s influence of the specialization of knowledge spillover effect was greater than that of competition. Many manufacturing enterprises in the eastern China have transferred to the central and the western China, nevertheless, it is common knowledge that most of these manufacturing enterprises are limited in the technical level as well as their technology is easy to be imitated, so that it is conducive to the development of MAR spillover in the central and the western China and it will promote the growth of manufacturing industry in the short term as well. Furthermore, the coefficients of Jacobs spillover were the smallest and the least significant among the three indicators of knowledge spillover effect, consequently the more specialized production was more favorable than the more diversified environment. Moreover, the significant positive Jacobs spillover originated from the western China. In spite of the poor level of specialization of manufacturing industry in the western China, which is not as good as that of in the central China, the knowledge spillover effect caused by the diversification and competition of environment taking a prominent effect on its manufacturing industry in the western China. Finally, the significant positive Poter spillover originated from the central China. As is well known that although many manufacturing enterprises in the central China lie in the low-end position of global production chain, and the ability of independent innovation is very weak still, in addition their ability to resist risks is very poor. Yet the knowledge spillover effect will be enhanced ultimately by means of opening up and fierce competition, which will also be conducive to the growth of manufacturing industry.
In the light of the results of empirical analysis, the following policy recommendations are put forward: First of all, if the government’s institutional supply can promote effectively the matching supply with demand in the market, the economic rent of enterprises can be increased naturally. Just owing to the low quality of essential productive factors in many central and western provinces of China, the requirements of modern high-end manufacturing cannot be met, thus it is necessary to improve the quality of essential productive factors in order to speed up the upgrading of manufacturing industry. The next, due to the high cost and high risk of independent innovation, the protection of intellectual property rights should be strengthened in line with different areas together with various stages of development. It should be planned by the government as a whole so as to promote cooperation among the provinces in the eastern, central and western China, and to internalize the externalizations of knowledge spillover effect, in addition, the eastern China should supply the capital, talents, knowledge and technology to the central and the western China. Once more, for the knowledge spillover effect of China’s central and western regions was more significant than that of China’s eastern regions, in the mean while, the former played a greater role in promoting the manufacturing industry than the latter. For these reason, technical cooperation with developed countries or regions should be further enhanced. In conclusion, the upgrading of manufacturing industry should give a full play to the internal and external economic effects. In consideration of the significance of the knowledge spillover effect of manufacturing industry in the central China, enterprises can achieve higher production standards by the aid of intra-industry specialization in the central China, which in favor of the internal economic effects.

Key words: supply-side reform, manufacturing industry upgrading, knowledge spillover effect, spatial correlation, institutional supply