科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 153-160.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

基于最佳实践的重大国防采办项目风险评估体系研究

程文渊，许佳，张慧，邢晨光   

  1. 中国航空工业发展研究中心，北京100029
  • 出版日期:2017-03-20 发布日期:2017-03-22

A research on the risk assessment system for major U.S. defenseacquisition programs and projects based on best practices

Cheng Wenyuan, Xu Jia, Zhang Hui, Xing Chenguang   

  1. Aviation Industry Development Research Center of China, Beijing 100029, China
  • Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-22

摘要： 美国政府每年在国防武器系统采办上耗资数十亿美元，通过引入先进技术不断提升武器系统性能，随着武器系统越来越复杂，项目风险问题日益突出。本文围绕美国重大武器系统采办项目的风险管理，重点针对进度风险、费用风险和技术风险等模型，开展评估流程、评估标准和评估案例研究，归纳总结美国基于最佳实践的重大国防项目风险评估体系，以此为基础，建议国内统筹考虑技术成熟度评价、进度评估和费用估算，制定政策法规与标准指南来规范和指导国防装备项目风险评估与管理。 

关键词: 风险评估, 技术成熟度, 费用估算, 进度评估

Abstract: U.S. federal government spends billions of dollars each year to develop, acquire and build major systems, develops cutting-edge technologies and integrates into large and complex system, in order to enhance the performance of weapon systems. However, with the systems becoming more and more complex, the risks become a hot issue. The risk assessment system for major defense acquisition programs and projects based on best practices has been established in this paper, and the technical risk, schedule risk and cost risk are analyzed, including assessment process, assessment criteria, and case studies. Finally, some suggestions are given to risk assessment and management for defense weapon system, including technology readiness assessment, cost estimation and assessment, and schedule assessment should be considered comprehensively, and policies, laws, standards and guidance for defense weapon systems’ risk management should be established in the future.

Key words: risk assessment, technology readiness assessment, cost estimating and assessment, schedule assessment